Lev Lafayette's journal

So this is a political entry. Starting on the global level, the announcement of radical changes in import tariffs by the United States of America has exposed the instability in global markets and the amount of fictitious capital but is founded on the bizarre calculation from debt. As one commentator put it: "The notion that taxing Lesotho gemstones is necessary for the U.S. to add steel jobs in Ohio is so absurd that I briefly lost consciousness in the middle of writing this sentence". Now, the administration has paused the imposition as global markets tumbled (except China, which has stood up and probably has the edge when it comes to economic resilience). The announcement of the pause seems to have been subject to insider-training.

The international effect of the US administration is influential in the current Australian political climate, with LNP leaders openly aligning themselves to the Trump administration. Policy-wise, they've followed the same playbook as their US counterparts: disastrous economic policies, wrecking public health, stripping the public service, "reforming" labour laws, and, as always, in the pocket of the wealthiest elite of the minerals and energy sector. Even their slogan, "Back on Track" means the track of Abbott, Morrison, and, the worst of them all, Dutton. High inflation, reduced real wages, higher taxes, and higher budget deficits. Weakening public health, education, and, as always, welfare. This 'is The Track' they want us to get back on, with the extra pain of Trump's chaos.

The LNP policies are so terrible they have to abandon them in days after announcing them. With an utter lack of economic literacy and an astounding inability to read the room, they are persisting with their plans for nuclear energy. Their campaign is a mess, with candidates being questioned and even stood down for extremist positions. They are led by a potato. Which we know in the Australian vernacular means a person of remarkable incompetence, the personality of a dullard, and is possibly poisonous. After leading in polls for months as a carping opposition, when actually put on the national stage and asked why they are a viable alternative, they have managed how unready they are. They are definitely not worth the risk; hence their sudden collapse in the polls.

Finally, on a personal note, a number of us met at the Union bar in Fitzroy this week for a small celebration of Tristan Ewins' life, who I wrote about recently. Led by Sarah H., the gathering was mainly made up of comrades from his Young Labor days (I was a bit of an outlier in this regard). All had stories to share (they far more than me), along with loving recognition of his personality traits, his conciliatory and balanced assessment from facts, his equally steadfast and passionate commitment to the underprivileged and working people, and the seriousness he took the public policy. The world is a lessened place by his absence, but we have his writing. I am quite prepared to go out on a limb and suggest that Tristan's writings be read and referred to for some time because he was always thinking about practical implementations and the long-run effects of policy, seriously and long-sighted.

I've spent the past couple of days off recovering from a minor cold, a negative RAT reducing concerns that it could have been the dreaded 'rona. Australia, having decided to "live with the virus" after reaching a low vaccination threshold now is seeing the effects. On December 31, the country had 2353 deaths due to COVID-19; now we're up to 7794 and growing. One wonders at what point we realise that this is not over and that vaccination plus some social distancing measures are required. I now have a number of friends that are in isolation because of it, one of whom I must admit I was very concerned about as it hit them pretty hard. Fortunately, they now seem to be on the path to recovery, but not without a feverish few days (and a rather scary related injury). Whilst many will get only moderate effects, whether due to initial viral load, the strain of the virus, or their immune system response, I readily admit to being a little risk-averse by disposition.

On a related matter last Sunday I gave an address to the Melbourne Unitarian-Universalist Fellowship, "We Are What We Do: Emotions, Trauma, and Happiness". The transcript includes several links to points I made which, of course, one cannot elaborate on in the actual presentation. Nevertheless, the round-table discussion that followed afterward was very valuable. Along the same trajectory the following day I finished my second assignment for my psychology degree which was on Maori health models, which is far more holistic than the effective split between psychology (clinical, positive) and sociology; I took up Te Pae Mahutonga as an example for study.

A few days ago I wrote a piece about the storm that kicked off in the election about minimum wage payments which, apart from the economics, it strikes me as lacking in empathy to tell such workers that they're good enough to be classified as "essential workers", get the highest rates of infection and lowest rates of health care, but are not deserving of an extra $1 per hour to live on (the actual debate comes down to 38c per hour). Now the latest suggestion is that young people can divest the minimal superannuation that they have to transfer wealth to those who own property, rather than addressing the main issue of land (no, not housing) prices. Economists universally agree that this will lead to higher home prices and that superannuation is a better investment anyway, which makes this either (a) a complete brain-fart or (b) a stealthy attempt to transfer intergenerational money from the young poor to the older rich. Guess which one I think it is?

Early in the weekend, I had the opportunity to attend a rather large and delightful dinner and, as the times demand, the conversation turned to the upcoming election. One of the guests was a petty-capitalist Tory; didn't really work himself, but owned two industrial properties which he rented for his income. His idea of volunteering was not for charitable causes but as a flag marshall at motorsports as it provided free attendance. Anyway, his main reason for voting for Scummo in the upcoming Federal election was that Dan Andrews has "done nothing for the health system". Apart from mixing Federal and State issues, I reminded my interlocutor that we have the Internet in our pockets and we don't need to use it just to look at pictures of cats, and I could quickly rattle off the expenditure over the past several years (from 2015-2016 to 2020-21 it was an increase of 71% to $19.8 billion). So I asked him how many billions would he like for health? His response, a risible pivot was, "all they've done is put us in debt!" because apparently health care expenditure was a bad investment now. His idea of ceding ground at the end of the conversation was to offer his hand and say "Well, we'll have to just agree to disagree". Sure, "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge" (as Isaac Asimov once sneered). That, dear readers, is the single biggest problem with majoritarian democracy; it depends on an informed public sphere, committed to improving both the commonwealth and our freedoms. Unfortunately, such ideals are contrary to the vested interests of some very wealthy individuals who manipulate public opinion with media power and rather skilfully prey on the emotions of the dispossessed. But it doesn't always work; after all, you can't deceive people all the time without losing some forever.

With under two weeks to go, I did a quick hack the other night comparing Anthony Green's election pendulum and and state-by-state polling aggregates by Billy Bowe. According to that (and it is guaranteed to be wrong because seat-by-seat will be different), Labor is on track to pick up 17 LNP seats i.e., Boothby (SA), Swan (WA), Pearce (WA), Hasluck (WA), Longman (QLD), Leichhardt (QLD), Dickson (QLD), Brisbane (QLD), Ryan (QLD), Bonner (QLD), Herbert (QLD), Petrie (QLD), Chisholm (VIC), Reid (NSW), Robertson (NSW), Bass (TAS) and Braddon (TAS). Also, Labor should win the new seat of Hawke (notionally 10.2%). Further, the "Teal Independents" are a major influence in this election. The margin on Wentworth of only 1.3% is so slim it is almost certain that will fall. In Higgins, it's 3.9%, although it's going to require some leakage from the fringe conservative parties to get Labor over the line there. A lot of noise has been made about Kooyong; Frydenberg managed to see off an effective challenge the last election from Burnside from the Greens, although it would be delightful to see such an incompetent go. There is even evidence that the Liberals are in serious trouble in Mackellar, a seat they hold with a 13% margin. Now, I thoroughly expect that there will be a narrowing as polling day approaches as the "undecideds" often stay with the devil they know. Still, there is an amazing opportunity to Morrison to let ideology trump common sense. After all, he has just announced another attempt to let religious groups discriminate, another salvo in his culture war. I don't think he quite understands how much the Australian public are secularists who believe in applying the same rules of fairness to everyone.

I'm am pleased with the positive response and shares of the "Known Soldier" meme which I posted on ANZAC day, illustrating how public figures seem to care a great deal about war in the abstract (the war memorial) but not the concrete (the returned veteran with PTSD). I am not exactly fond of invasive wars and nor do I find States that declare effectively declare war on their own population to be tolerable either. The two trajectories combined, I suppose, makes one an internationalist on matters of principle, the opposite of the disturbing and clueless comments by Minister of Defence, Peter Dutton and his insistence that we should "prepare for war". This, from a government that has failed miserably on the submarines project, and has absolutely failed on diplomacy and aid when it came to the Solomon Islands.

Appropriately on ANZAC day, I hosted what become a very long brunch of some clever people, including the smartest person I know, one Clinton F. a lecturer in Strategic Studies, from University of NSW-ADFA, Deb S., the founder of East Timor Women's Australia, Anthony L., the Secretary-General of the Pacific-China Friendship Society and Robin M., the national President of the Australia China Friendship Society (who curiously do not have a national website). So you can imagine what that was like. Clinton an expert on defense matters, gave good factual information on why Taiwan will, and indeed, could not be invaded by China ("Don't argue with facts is a personal mantra of my life"), which makes the LNP beating the war drum all the more risible, dishonest, and dangerous.

This is not a "khaki election", it's an election about leadership and economic security. For both wage workers and those on welfare real incomes continue to decline, and rents continue to increase. Our economic system punishes the poor for simply being poor and it's getting worse. It's about time that was changed.

The Australian Federal election is today, and it increasingly seems that we'll have a change of government. Labor has been pretty brave in this election, ignoring the traditional "small target" strategy and has certainly suffered for it, upsetting some powerful media figures, the real estate industry, and opening themselves up to a scare campaign to retirees on franking credit reforms. The wisest economic minds have come out in favour of Labor, but when your economic policy is about targetting recent-seeking and maximising utility (which means more money to the poor), you're going to put some people off. But despite all this, the opinions polls have remained consistently in favour of Labor throughout the campaign and as the end draws near there's even a bounce further to their benefit.

For the own part, the Coalition has run a largely negative campaign focussing on claims of Labor's taxes and claims that they can't manage money, which is curious given that they've doubled net government debt. The major policies came out in the budget preceding the election which the major ticket is a $77bn tax-cut for those earning $180K+ pa and more. Certainly their record (astounding list compiled by Matthew Davis) is nothing to crow about; a succession of leadership challenges, a current prime minister who mocks climate change by bringing a lump of coal into parliament like it's a pet rock, and an parade of questionable contracts with their donors, and their trite slogans have been brilliantly mocked by The Weekly.

Almost on cue to generate a sense of pro-Labor nostalgia, Labor's longest-serving former Prime Minister, Bob Hawke, passed away on Thursday. The media was positively gushing with tributes of this "larrikin" prime minister, famous for holding the world record downing a yard-glass of beer. But it was the deep changes to the Australian economy and legislation which were his more significant achievements. Australia's universal health-care system, Medicare, is certainly one that is highly recognised. Tariff reform helped provide the international diversity of goods we enjoy. Social welfares expenditures were almost double the OECD average, and a slate of anti-discrimination legislation was implemented. Yes, Hawke did engage in a neoliberal agenda as well; union membership plummeted and with 'free riders' now the norm and there was a 'race to the bottom' with company tax cuts. But if you want to see a difference between the two, compare the UK's Thatcher with Hawke. When Hawke died, there is a collective sense of the loss of a favourite. When Thatcher died, people danced in the streets.

For my own part, I went to the impromptu memorial celebration at Trades Hall last night, having just missed Bill Shorten across the road at the pub (did catch up with Liz and Karl, which was awesome). Earlier in the week, I completed my letter-box run with Labor advertising (education and climate change pamphlets). Labor is lucky to get 20% of the vote where I live; it is well-to-do, to put it mildly, and something that was drilled into me as a child was that Labor was the party of the poor. I found myself reminiscing of where I started in life and where I've ended up, and how so few of the people in my locale have experienced poverty. They don't know the endless struggle of looking over basic utility bills and wondering how they will be paid. They don't know of hiding in a room in complete silence when the rent-collector is banging on the door because this week, again, there just isn't enough money to pay. They don't the shame of surreptitiously hiding your homework and claiming that you forgot to do it, because the task was to do a floorplan of where you live, and yours is 1/5th of everyone else around you. They don't know the indignity of begging a charity for a food parcel, just so there will be something on the table at Christmas. I do know those experiences, and whilst they are long in my past, they are deep and old scars.

Surprising absolutely nobody, I have spent nearly all of the past several days preparing for my impending economics exams and, as is my want, have created an rather impressive set of study notes which, if I worked on them could be a textbook in their own. To be honest, I am still uncertain of taking the exams this year given that I started a few (up to five, depending on how you count it) months behind, and whilst I have learned a great deal in the subject it is not something that I had undertaken for almost 30 years. Despite this my biggest weakness here is not conceptual but rather mathematical - I simply don't have the experience or practise.

Despite having my nose almost entirely buried in books, (which is not an unusual state for me, it's just a question of depth), I have continued with my almost-daily 'blog of the Australian Federal Election. Major events of the campaign include a "Watergate" scandal of epic proportions, of which the former Deputy Prime Minister sounds like he had "a few drinks" prior to a Radio National interview on the matter, the multi-millionaire mining magnate preferencing the government, and the Labor opposition providing pathways from casual to full-time work.

It hasn't entirely been "all work and no play" however. Last Sunday played a session of RuneQuest Questworld, where our GM has placed us in the old "Griffin Island" region, and we successfully defended a town against some rather overwhelming odds. Last night played DungeonQuest for the first time (and somehow I survived in this rather deadly game), along with a session of Munchkin Cthulhu. In a further attempt not to go stir crazy visited the doctor a couple of days ago due to a stubborn skin infection in my lower leg (probably a minor case of cellulitis). The doctor's first reaction was "Oh no, this could be diabetes!". I felt like responding, "Nah, I'm just old and overweight", which of course is true, and my blood-sugar levels were quite normal. Almost forgot! Earlier this week received a "Ruby Feather" in Duolingo, with 7050 points for the week, which was #1 for the Asia-Pacific-European region, and maybe even the world? I don't need to do that again

It's been quite a week; started off with a giving an introductory HPC class at the University of Melbourne with a particularly engaged an interested group of researchers on Monday, whom I found out later one was enthusiastically tweeting as the class went on. Thursday was the official launch of Spartan, the new HPC-Cloud hybrid, with over a hundred people in attendance and several speakers (including the Acting Vice-Chancellor). I gave a presentation on the architecture and technical side and have noted the widespread media coverage it has picked up, including sites like HPC Wire, Gizmodo, and Delimiter. Also, damn awesome luch afterwards. Next week I'm off to the Gold Coast for QuestNet.

Tomorrow is the Australian Federal election. Most opinion polls are predicting a close result on raw TPP votes, but with the Coalition leading in the key marginal electorates. I have giving a pessimistic reading of such analysis which also outlines what one can expect in the next three years (which has received some circulation on social media), with thesauce providing a item-by-item manifest of the atrocity exhibition that has made up this government. It all raises the question of deliberative and informed democracy, an issue which Brad Murray has explored with regards to Brexit.

It's also been a busy week in terms of gaming and the RPG Review Cooperative. My review of Vampire:The Masquerade was finally published on rpg.net, but on a much bigger scale, issue 30 of RPG Review has just been released, which includes an interview with Steve Kenson, reviews of several superhero RPGs, a superhero short story, a campaign world setting, organisations and characters, CRPG reviews, and two movie reviews. Appropriately Wednesday was a session of Godsend Agenda which dived right into the fictionalised version of the disasters confronting Marco Polo's return trip. Plus, the Cooperative has purchased ISBNs for member publications, thus completing every single objective that we set out to achieve at the start of the year - and we're only seven months in!

Excellent session of Eclipse Phase last night with continuing misadventures with an artificial language that, Sapir-Worf style, causes psychosis. As Laurie Anderson once sung, language is a virus (from outer space). Have also written a review for Albedo, anthromorphic militaristic hard science fiction simulationist game - which is pretty weird. The Coda Lord of the Rings roleplaying game is next up. Apropos to all this the game store continues to generate interest with a good sales/effort ratio - finding time to stock up is the greatest challenge.

Recently received response and grade for my EDU441 research proposal, on open-source content in higher education. I suppose 100% is just good enough. On Sunday giving a presentation at The Philosophy Forum on The Philosophy of Education. On Monday will be attending the 122 Annual Henry George Dinner, with Saul Eslake as guest. The following day is the annual general meeting of Linux Users Victoria, where there is a disincorporation motion which I have written about in terms of organisational structures. Other major event of the week was joining the Industrial Workers of the World, probably an action I should have taken years ago.

We're almost in the last week of the Australian Federal election, which opinion polls put the government Labor Party behind, despite an excellent economic record. Despite this dire state of affiars, cannot help but be impressed by Labor's brilliant advertisement for the NBN (sdiff). Of my recent popularity is an comic explanation of the case against Labor (Poe's Law applies).