US Presidental Elections, Economic Disasters, Gaming and a basket of rats

[tcpip]

If it couldn't get any worse for the Republicans, the inquiry into Palin has revealed that she did abuse her power in the "troopergate" affair - interesting to note that the Alaskan legislature voted unanimously to make the report public. I'm going out on a bit of a limb here as a psephologist and make the claim that the McCain/Palin pretty much can't win. The RCP Electoral College map shows that even if they win all the states that are in doubt, they will still lose - and that would be reversing a trend which is currently 77-26 in favour of Obama in the "toss up" states. This lead is likely to increase as Obama is intending to spend big on the last weeks of the election. Given that the Republicans are largely sunk, there is some sense in Libertarians who normally vote Republican to vote for their favoured third-party; I normally don't make such recommendations given the way that the US electoral system works (first-past-the-post, winner-takes-all), which effectively limits voting choice to the least disliked of two options. But in this case, given that the Republican cannot win, Libertarians should take the opportunity to give the anti-secular moral conservatives a swift kick to the rear.

Last week the Dow fell 18% as emergency G-20 summits are called. National debt in the United States is now $11 trillion and the clock runs out of digits; competing in orders of magnitude, Zimbabwe's inflation rate is 231 million percent. The British strategy is to punish top executives and to purchase preferential shares. Would anyone be terribly surprised if it I pointed out that housingestate prices are falling at record rates?.

Usual D&D 3.x Fantasy Australia game on Thursday. Played a great game of Middle Earth Role Playing on Friday night (thank you Michael) and on Saturday wrote an alternative Fourth Age article for Other Minds entitled "White Hand Rising" (go on, guess what that's about). On Sunday played imajica_lj's Call of Cthulhu game. Thank you for all your very kind comments on Scoundrel's departure. Our household couldn't remain ratless for long and on Saturday, courtesy of a lovely lass named Sarah we picked up three new boys, born on the 14th of August. Welcome to (top-down) Mischief, Calamity and Trouble.

Comments

[mr-figgy.livejournal.com]

Hopefully the statistical makeup of people who actually turn out to vote is identical or more favourable to Obama/Biden than the polls... it would be shocking and awful if things got ruined by purged electoral rolls and other such problems.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

That is quite true. The message in the final days should be "Obama can only win if you vote".

But at the moment it's looking like a matter of how much the Republicans are going to lose by.

[i-amthecosmos.livejournal.com]

Agreed with the above comment, also, the Republican mood is getting uglier and uglier as they face losing to Obama.

I predict some truly nasty racial politics, if not a bomb threat.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

It will be interesting; a negative campaign is useful when one holds a marginal lead and is hoping to stem a tide. In that context it will work; it doesn't win votes, but it can stop the flow to the opposition.

In this situation however McCain needs to come up with something absolutely mindboggling incredible that resonates the entire heart and sould of the citizens of the US. I don't think he's got that.

The more extreme right-wing elements will get more extreme as the Obama victory becomes increasingly likely. There has been, as we know, already one planned assassination attempt. There will be others.

Despite his most abhorrent foreign policies that cause the death of thousands, and domestic incompetence, I think at worst McCain is a little - shall we say "old fashioned"? - on matters of race he is going to find increasingly the core of people who support him are those who cannot stand the idea of a man with a Semitic name or dark pigmentation becoming President. I don't think he's going to like that association.

Hmmm... But Palin might.

[darknova666.livejournal.com]

he looks pretty frail too

[madame-mage.livejournal.com]

I must have missed the post about Scoundrel! Im sorry for your loss my friend, as you already know I love ratties with a passion. Sweet enough to have 3 Leo male ratties vying for your attentions! Life is going to be interesting enough I think!

Sarah Palin.....*long drawn out breath* criticizing this sorry excuse for a politician is like shooting fish in a barrel..she's not going very far and I've heard whispers about the "L" word for Obama's camp....LANDSLIDE votes!

We as a country are weary and in pain over the financial tatters the Bush Gov't has left us in. Time for a change? We are sick and tired of the Repugs.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

I must have missed the post about Scoundrel! Im sorry for your loss my friend, as you already know I love ratties with a passion.

Like all our rodents they've know they've been loved. The one I feel most sorry for was poor Vagabond who died without our immediate presence.

We as a country are weary and in pain over the financial tatters the Bush Gov't has left us in. Time for a change? We are sick and tired of the Repugs.

Yes, I rather suspect the promise of "four more years" would send a shiver down the spine of many people of the U.S.

Politics usually has a domestic front and an an international front; the Bush era has destroyed any credibility of the Republicans in both. The only angle left is the personal front - and I really don't think McCain is comfortable going for that angle.

I wonder what Obama's second terms is going to be like...

[roadriverrail.livejournal.com]

Yes, I rather suspect the promise of "four more years" would send a shiver down the spine of many people of the U.S.

It would if we had the emotional energy left to shiver. For many of us, a McCain win would be the ultimate insult, the final crushing blow on our path from criticism to opposition to rage to mourning to desolation. I don't even know if I'd be able to feel sad anymore, and I'd probably start looking for a job in Vancouver.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

It is young Americans that will make this happen - even to the point of convincing their most conservative elders.

Change has to come. The very thought - let alone the domestic level - in international relations of a President who supports a never-ending war in the Middle East is something that the world cannot live with.

[roadriverrail.livejournal.com]

Nor one we can afford. We stopped being able to afford that little adventure several years ago.

I continue to be optimistic only because, deep down, I aspire to be Gene Kranz, and his motto is mine-- Failure is not an option.

I was simply saying that, if McCain wins, I won't have it left in me to even have fear. My emotional state would be like that of a sick animal with only hours left to live.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Latest RCP compilation has Florida in the leaning Obama camp (i.e., margin of 5% or more).

That brings the total to Obama/Biden 304, McCain/Palin 158, Toss Up 76 (of which 60 is currently in Obama's camp, 16 in McCain's).

The most probable way that the Republicans can win at this point is by massive falsification of the votes.

I wonder which states are using Diebold this year?

[roadriverrail.livejournal.com]

I believe Florida does. We're basically the second most corrupt state in the US after Louisiana, which itself has had the federal government seize control from the state government twice.

In fact, we're so crooked here that we actually had to pass a law requiring our elected officials not discuss business unless they're in a public meeting. Every state has that law now, called a Sunshine Law, named after the Sunshine State.

We're so crooked, the state DOT wanted to kill plans for a high-speed rail so they paid the state highway patrolmen to pull cars over at random and ask the drivers if they thought they were driving in a good location for high-speed rail to be installed. Public fear overturned the project immediately.

[cluebyfour.livejournal.com]

Please accept my belated sympathies on Scoundrel's passing, and congrats on the new ratties.

The Palin story is interesting. Apparently her high approval rating among Alaskan voters didn't resonate with the state legislature; their report is what we would call throwing someone under the bus.

Of course even if Palin wasn't pulling down the Republican ticket, McCain's performances in the debates would be enough to sink him. Unless he turns in an absolutely mesmerizing performance at the next debate (and it will be critical, with its focus on economic issues) I think the GOP is toast. And his campaign ads have grown more stridently negative, another sign of the Republicans' desperation.

As for Libertarians going third-party, the problem is that many of them can't stand their own party nominee. If Bob Barr had made any attempt to reach out to the legion of Ron Paul supporters, he might have had a real impact on the election. He certainly would have given McCain fits in the swing states. But he blew Paul off when Paul got together with Ralph Nader, Cynthia McKinney and Chuck Baldwin and encouraged voters to go third-party, thus ensuring the LP is once again rendered irrelevant.

This, among other reasons, is why I'm staying home this election. As you pointed out, the U. S. system is rigged by design to ensure the major parties remain in power, and as an anarchist I can't bring myself to play that game. I'm under no illusion that I'm not still making a choice by not voting, but unless there's a fundamental change in the electoral process or a "None of the Above" option appears on the ballot, I see no point in wasting my time at the polls.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Please accept my belated sympathies on Scoundrel's passing, and congrats on the new ratties.

Thanks. I'll pass on some scritches.

It's a real shame that Barr didn't try to make some sort outreach to Ron Paul, Nader, McKinney etc. Sure, it would make some pretty strange politics, but as some have pointed out there is a yin-yang dynamic (not saying who is who) between the Greens and the Libertarians.

US Third Party Debates

[castleclear.livejournal.com]

Well, there is this: http://www.thirdpartyticket.com/

Thanks for the link to http://geolib.pair.com/essays/sullivan.dan/greenlibertarians.html

[http://users.livejournal.com/_fustian/]

Zimbabwe's inflation rate is 231 million percent.

Which means their new $50K note, in 2006 (first) currency, would be worth five hundred quadrillion dollars. (Saying that aloud several times in a Doctor Evil voice just now has annoyed wildilocks.)

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

I like the Dr. Evil voice :)

But you've got it upside down (Miss Jane). Five Hundred Quadrillion dollars would be worth what $50K could purchase in 2006..

Except of course, the inflation rate hasn't been that high all the time.

It must be a great economy, the government paying thugs to turn productive assets into non-productive ones. No wonder they're short of paper...

[roadriverrail.livejournal.com]

Which is to say that they have it about as well off as the fleet on Battlestar Galactica:

Colonel Saul Tigh: Try telling that to a bunch of empty stomachs.
Admiral William Adama: I hear they're still eating paper. Is that true?
Colonel Saul Tigh: No. Paper shortage.
[Both begin laughing hysterically]
Admiral William Adama: Not a good sign.

--Battlestar Galactica, "The Passage" (Season 3, Ep 8)

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Heh. A couple of months back I remember reading that pregnant women in Kenya are rather partial to rock soup. Better not tell Mugabe about that. He'll pay hired loons to guard rocky outcrops to make sure that nobody gets "free food" that way.

[must-sew-faster.livejournal.com]

Ah, pica. Those poor women are so malnourished they crave the minerals in the soil. There are parts of the US where clay eating is very common (mostly in Appalachia and down south). Some women bake the clay into little cakes.
Pregnancy triggers it a lot of the time; I chewed ice non-stop when I was pregnant. That's usually a dead give away that someone is anemic.

[roadriverrail.livejournal.com]

There are actually a number of "earth dishes" you find throughout the world to cope with starvation. In Haiti, "mud bread" isn't unusual.

But that said, I should mention that pica is common in pregnant women even in parts of the world where there is plenty of food. In many mesoamerican cultures, they will smash shards off of terra cotta pots and suck on them. In Vietnam, a common pregnancy dish is meat and rice stewed in an unglazed clay pot.

[http://users.livejournal.com/_fustian/]

Poor wording. What I meant was "their new $50K note, if it had been issued in 2006 (first) currency, be worth five hundred quadrillion dollars" (of today's, third currency).

Except of course, the inflation rate hasn't been that high all the time.

That's not calculated on the inflation rate; that's based on the two official revaluations of the currency (the first in 2006 of $1000 to $1, the second in June this year of $10 billion to $1).

[must-sew-faster.livejournal.com]

Lovely new little boys. Their names remind me of two of our original cats, Frenzy and Mayhem. =)

As for the rest, I'm scared about this election. I'm physically anxious. I'm still in shock, almost 4 years later, that the W got a second term, and I can't imagine the catastrophe that a McCain Palin win would bring upon us. Or maybe I can, and that's what's causing the fear.

And I still have to contend with coworkers who think that Palin is the best thing since sliced bread.

It's going to be a long 3 and a half weeks. Pass the Xanax, please.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Heh, one of my lj friends has a little kitten named Mayhem. It seems to be a popular choice.

I'm prepared to suggest that there was significant fraud in the last Presidential election. The fact that the Diebold machines are quite hackable with no log records is indicative of the possibility.

I think it's all going to be good.

Great icon :)

[must-sew-faster.livejournal.com]

Icon courtesy of muskrat_john (he of the Munchkin art).
I don't know what machines Cuyahoga County is using this year. We were "the county of hanging chads" two presidential elections ago. Last election, we used an electronic method which has since been discarded, due to security issues.
This generally slows things up as they have to explain to everyone how the new fangled machines work.

[darknova666.livejournal.com]

yeah its great to see the republicans doing badly - but some scary comments by some repub voters - kill him etc

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

McCain's trying to put a lid on it... But they're all he has left. It's a hard tightrope for him.

"But the problem now for McCain is how to keep the hardcore supporters onside without firing up their emotions."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/14/uselections2008-johnmccain1

BTW, RuneQuest next Sunday. *nods*

[antayla.livejournal.com]

You know, within the last two weeks, the value of the US dollar to the Aussie dollar has gone from 1 : 1.20 to 1 : 1.55. I'm coming to visit again (my friend paid my way there, what a dear!) and I bought my currency two weeks ago :(. I'm really kicking myself now (but it looked like it was going the other way sooooo...) The $700bn hasn't hit the bank yet.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Yeah, the 'zack is all over the place at the moment. I bought some items on Ebay on "the wrong day" and found myself paying a hefty $63 AUD when a week prior it would have been about $35.

I'm coming to visit again (my friend paid my way there, what a dear!) and I bought my currency two weeks ago :(.

Hooray you're coming over! Boo for buying currency on the wrong day..

Umm... But why did you buy currency whilst you are still overseas?

[antayla.livejournal.com]

Why not? It wasn't all that much anyhow
And I thought it was going to go back downhill. The dollars were almost down to a straight 1:1 a few months ago. I wanted to buy it before the money hit the banks again.

I should have realized that the currency was going to DEFLATE, at least in the short term. Doh.

US Presidental Elections, Economic Disasters, Gaming and a basket of rats

[castleclear.livejournal.com]

Very nice news summary! The gaming sounds mega-fun, and congrats on the new rodent friends!

Re: US Presidental Elections, Economic Disasters, Gaming and a basket of rats

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Thank you, my friend. I just received some editorial feedback for the Other Hands magazine; apparently they were very impressed - whereas I thought it could have done with a lot more development.

Sometimes these things happen :)

I'm just itching for our regular RuneQuest game this Sunday!

Re: US Presidental Elections, Economic Disasters, Gaming and a basket of rats

[castleclear.livejournal.com]

Ah, RuneQuest. It's been a long time since I played. I think it'll be 1-2 months before friends and I have regular RPG again.

Is Other Hands magazine "Other Minds"?

Re: US Presidental Elections, Economic Disasters, Gaming and a basket of rats

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Ah yes, my mistake. Other Hands/Minds are two Middle-Earth resources and the reasoning explained here:

http://www.invasivedesigns.com/otherhands/frames_welcome.html

[ninboydean.livejournal.com]

I've been playing D&D again, too. It's been refreshing.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Which edition/setting?

[ninboydean.livejournal.com]

3.5 with a campaign my friend made.

It's usually just 3 people, a good excuse to hang out on fridays and have some specific preoccupation.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

I have to say, I think 3.5 is probably the best edition of D&D... although with a fair bit of houseruling one could whack the D&D Rules Compendium into shape as well..

[tentacularone.livejournal.com]

Off topic, I was curious to hear your thoughts on the upcoming internet restrictions being implemented in Australia. I only just heard about it, but I assume you've probably known it was coming for some time. I'm curious how it came to pass, as such restrictions would be far too unpopular to start in the US (at least, I hope that's the case).

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

I am quite amazed that there hasn't bee the sort of massive protests against it, but as a whole Australians really don't get "freedom of speech" yet. :(

Various industry groups are opposed to it of course, as have the individuals in the EFA. I'm doing what I can as well... But as I said, Australia has a long history of preventing access to free information.

[spinner.livejournal.com]

Alas, it was liberal farce. Eight of twelve on the panel were Democrats, which doesn't entirely diminish the verdict (there were four republicans, afterall), but does leave it to be called into refute.

This campaign is making me weary - God knows how a genuine, earnest US voter must feel at this point.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Eight of twelve on the panel were Democrats, which doesn't entirely diminish the verdict

Well, not with the sort of response the legislature gave it.

This campaign is making me weary

Well given the process involved it's not surprising. The election campaign, given the primaries etc, seems to run for about 1/4 of a term.

Heck the Kiwis simply call it and have it over an done with in a month.