Pasifika Climate Matters
Jun. 15th, 2026 09:10 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
tcpip"Pacific Island Countries are microcontributors of greenhouse gases yet they are likely to be affected most. Some large nations have blatantly shown their lack of concern on these issues and they seem to believe that their economy and well-being are much more important than the survival of the people from PICs. This sounds inhumane to us. How can we make our voice heard? Are we over-reacting? One thing is for sure: we are vulnerable."
-- Janita Pahalad, Fiji Meteorological Service (Gillispie & Burns, 2000, p223)
For a few years I've more than a usual interest in the climate affairs of the Pacific (including a master's dissertation from the University of Wellington), with the recent completion of a major research paper on energy production which, as the wheel turns very slowly, will hopefully be published soon in the Intergovernmental Research and Policy Journal. In the meantime, however, I have also been nose to the grindstone and have just completed another paper for the same journal, this time on the current and future modelling of sea level change in the Pacific. There are three major improvements in this area: firstly, the adoption of satellite altimetry rather than tidal gauges; secondly, the continued abandonment of the "bathtub" models; and thirdly, the very significant improvements in sheer computational power, especially with general-purpose GPU programming.
Satellites provide a much broader scope for measuring sea level rise, capable of tracking the entire planet rather than just where tidal gauges are located. Further, altimetry actually measures variations in sea-level height, whereas gauges can be subject to subsidence. As for the "bathtub" models, they were fine for predicting sea-level rise due to thermal expansion, but not so good at predicting the effects of storm and wave surges and erosion. Newer, dynamic models are doing a better job at this. Finally, with this additional quantity of data and the complexity of interactions, we are very fortunate to have improvements in computing power through GPGPU programming, which enables massive parallel computation.
Anyway, doing such research has taken up a sizeable portion of my non-working life for the past few weeks, so it's good have some light the end of this project, before I move on to the next topic, which will either be a study in mitigation and adaptation in developing countries or environmental economics, both areas that I know quite well - all depends what my supervisor thinks is best. On a more practical and immediate note, however, it looks like I'll be taking another (short, small) international trip in a couple of weeks to really knuckle down on a major, relevant project for Pacific Island Nations that covers both energy generation and sea-level rise. Who knew that after years of formal study and research, one might be able to make a significant and serious contribution to a chosen subject.
-- Janita Pahalad, Fiji Meteorological Service (Gillispie & Burns, 2000, p223)
For a few years I've more than a usual interest in the climate affairs of the Pacific (including a master's dissertation from the University of Wellington), with the recent completion of a major research paper on energy production which, as the wheel turns very slowly, will hopefully be published soon in the Intergovernmental Research and Policy Journal. In the meantime, however, I have also been nose to the grindstone and have just completed another paper for the same journal, this time on the current and future modelling of sea level change in the Pacific. There are three major improvements in this area: firstly, the adoption of satellite altimetry rather than tidal gauges; secondly, the continued abandonment of the "bathtub" models; and thirdly, the very significant improvements in sheer computational power, especially with general-purpose GPU programming.
Satellites provide a much broader scope for measuring sea level rise, capable of tracking the entire planet rather than just where tidal gauges are located. Further, altimetry actually measures variations in sea-level height, whereas gauges can be subject to subsidence. As for the "bathtub" models, they were fine for predicting sea-level rise due to thermal expansion, but not so good at predicting the effects of storm and wave surges and erosion. Newer, dynamic models are doing a better job at this. Finally, with this additional quantity of data and the complexity of interactions, we are very fortunate to have improvements in computing power through GPGPU programming, which enables massive parallel computation.
Anyway, doing such research has taken up a sizeable portion of my non-working life for the past few weeks, so it's good have some light the end of this project, before I move on to the next topic, which will either be a study in mitigation and adaptation in developing countries or environmental economics, both areas that I know quite well - all depends what my supervisor thinks is best. On a more practical and immediate note, however, it looks like I'll be taking another (short, small) international trip in a couple of weeks to really knuckle down on a major, relevant project for Pacific Island Nations that covers both energy generation and sea-level rise. Who knew that after years of formal study and research, one might be able to make a significant and serious contribution to a chosen subject.
