The Tory Mind and Other Election Matters

[tcpip]

Early in the weekend, I had the opportunity to attend a rather large and delightful dinner and, as the times demand, the conversation turned to the upcoming election. One of the guests was a petty-capitalist Tory; didn't really work himself, but owned two industrial properties which he rented for his income. His idea of volunteering was not for charitable causes but as a flag marshall at motorsports as it provided free attendance. Anyway, his main reason for voting for Scummo in the upcoming Federal election was that Dan Andrews has "done nothing for the health system". Apart from mixing Federal and State issues, I reminded my interlocutor that we have the Internet in our pockets and we don't need to use it just to look at pictures of cats, and I could quickly rattle off the expenditure over the past several years (from 2015-2016 to 2020-21 it was an increase of 71% to $19.8 billion). So I asked him how many billions would he like for health? His response, a risible pivot was, "all they've done is put us in debt!" because apparently health care expenditure was a bad investment now. His idea of ceding ground at the end of the conversation was to offer his hand and say "Well, we'll have to just agree to disagree". Sure, "my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge" (as Isaac Asimov once sneered). That, dear readers, is the single biggest problem with majoritarian democracy; it depends on an informed public sphere, committed to improving both the commonwealth and our freedoms. Unfortunately, such ideals are contrary to the vested interests of some very wealthy individuals who manipulate public opinion with media power and rather skilfully prey on the emotions of the dispossessed. But it doesn't always work; after all, you can't deceive people all the time without losing some forever.

With under two weeks to go, I did a quick hack the other night comparing Anthony Green's election pendulum and and state-by-state polling aggregates by Billy Bowe. According to that (and it is guaranteed to be wrong because seat-by-seat will be different), Labor is on track to pick up 17 LNP seats i.e., Boothby (SA), Swan (WA), Pearce (WA), Hasluck (WA), Longman (QLD), Leichhardt (QLD), Dickson (QLD), Brisbane (QLD), Ryan (QLD), Bonner (QLD), Herbert (QLD), Petrie (QLD), Chisholm (VIC), Reid (NSW), Robertson (NSW), Bass (TAS) and Braddon (TAS). Also, Labor should win the new seat of Hawke (notionally 10.2%). Further, the "Teal Independents" are a major influence in this election. The margin on Wentworth of only 1.3% is so slim it is almost certain that will fall. In Higgins, it's 3.9%, although it's going to require some leakage from the fringe conservative parties to get Labor over the line there. A lot of noise has been made about Kooyong; Frydenberg managed to see off an effective challenge the last election from Burnside from the Greens, although it would be delightful to see such an incompetent go. There is even evidence that the Liberals are in serious trouble in Mackellar, a seat they hold with a 13% margin. Now, I thoroughly expect that there will be a narrowing as polling day approaches as the "undecideds" often stay with the devil they know. Still, there is an amazing opportunity to Morrison to let ideology trump common sense. After all, he has just announced another attempt to let religious groups discriminate, another salvo in his culture war. I don't think he quite understands how much the Australian public are secularists who believe in applying the same rules of fairness to everyone.

Comments

[warriorsavant]

As GoTV used to say, "you can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time... unless you work in television."

[tcpip]

The only way around that is not to watch TV.

Instead, people are getting their bad information on "social" media.