Corona Concerns, Quasi-Normal Living, Work Challenges

[tcpip]

I find myself quite concerned with public health policy and behaviour of the general public. As is my wont, with sober senses, I quietly compose my thoughts on matters, ensuring that I have brought together grounded evidence to generate considered convictions, this time comparing the public health policies of elimination from last year to this year's approach of vaccinated herd immunity: From Elimination to Herd Immunity?. Unfortunately, the reality is that herd immunity is a difficult number given the R0 of the Delta variant, and an elimination strategy is still the best, even if politically difficult, option. But the virus really doesn't care whether something is "politically difficult". There is a sense in which I personally feel a little surrounded by it all; there are no less than 22 coronavirus exposure times from 9 different sites surrounding me within 1km of where I live, including a block immediately to the rear of my apartment.

Despite this, I find myself engaging in some quasi-normal living, even attending a political webinar hosted by my local MLC, Nina Taylor, and addressed by the state minister of the environment, Lily D'Ambrosio, on the Victorian government's waste and recycling plans. A couple of days later I found myself visiting the St Kilda foreshore with Robbie K., who I count as a friend of some 25 years, although we haven't been in each other's company for the better part of more than 18 months or so. Once upon a time we would find ourselves attending various alternative concerts together (e.g., Jello Biafra, The Strokes, Massive Attack), now we wandered along the beach, reminisced, and grizzled about the effects of the pandemic and the huge quantities of maskless individuals.

I will also admit to some challenges at work in the past week as well. A quantum chemistry application, released as a collection of binaries only, has proven to be less than friendly with the version of OpenMPI that is linked to on our system (the serial version works just fine). A machine-learning image recognition application, designed for a different flavour of Linux and with a Makefile that dies when installing CUDA/GPU versions that don't exist, is also causing problems. Combining the two, I can also say the same for a molecular dynamics application, also designed for a different distribution but also with MPI errors. Still, I guess that having three work problems isn't too bad, but such problems! I am rather looking forward to delivering a class on Friday, which of course had all its places filled an hour after announcement. Apparently, people still want to learn about supercomputers.

Comments

[catsidhe]

I think the elephant in the room is that herd immunity isn't possible either.

Best case would have been suppression and extinction of the virus. Which, given the faffing around in China, and all the other places who refused to believe it could spread, itself died on the vine.

If you can't eliminate the virus, given its transmissibility and mortality, then the next best case is to suppress it long enough to 1) develop a vaccine, and 2) give everyone you possibly can that vaccine, so that even if when you catch it, you'll be a bit sick, and then get better and get on with your life. Like the flu.

So the suppression was there to buy us time. As soon as it was endemic anywhere else in the world, double donuts was only ever a way to buy time. And they did develop vaccines, and they do drop the severity of infection by a meaningful amount.

And then... people thought that double donuts meant we could take our time with vaccinations. That "It's not a race". That you could wait for the vaccine you would prefer instead of the one you can get now.

And, oh hey, surprise! It's a clusterfuck. We bought time, and we pissed it up against a wall.

And now they're saying this group or that group "has priority". Which is not just bullshit, it's a lie. Unless you can bypass the lines altogether by walking into a place, it's not possible to "get priority". You go on the booking line, and you wait days to actually get into a hold queue, and then an hour to actually talk to someone, and then another hour while you and they watch appointments hither thither and yon become available and then vanish before you can click on them. There is no possible way that there is a "priority" unless you really literally have special numbers for Year 12s or pregnant people or first nations folk or the disabled to call and special reserved appointment slots, everywhere, to give them.

Interminable ads pleading or sternly telling people to get vaccinated, and great announcements that unvaccinated people won't be allowed to do anything and it's their own fault really for not getting one of the imaginary appointments through the crowd of literally everyone else trying to get the same ones, are just heaping insult on injury.


(Disclosure: through bloodymindedness and sheer good luck, both my wife and I are fully vaxxed, and both our kids (18 and 16) have had their first doses.

[tcpip]

Yeah, herd immunity through a vaccine will require c90%+ of the population to be vaccinated, not 70% or 80% of the 16+ population. It horrifies me that certain politicians have been so cavalier about public health and so prepared to induce optimism.

The virus doesn't care about our marketing.

[catsidhe]

But surely you agree, like all serious people who have opinion columns in Murdoch papers, that the real priority here is shovelling cash into Gerry Harvey's wallet?

Remember, Gladys is The Premier For Business!

[tcpip]

Yeah, I'm used to Tory parties being corrupt but the recent collection are not even pretending to be acting in the public interest.

Job Keeper is perhaps the greatest business welfare rort in Australian history.

[fred_mouse]

I hear you on the absolute fuckup that is the Australian government vaccine rollout.

And oh, goodness, the spin on 'young people not being vaccinated/the lowest vaccination rates' had me frothing at the mouth. At that point none of the offspring could even make an appointment -- they are all scheduled for this Thursday (Youngest is doing year 12, and did not want to risk missing any Mocks, so this is the first day after the last mock).

At least the website in WA mostly coped, possibly because each 'appointment' was for many many people, and the actual appointment time was merely a polite fiction to try and get people spread out through the day

[tcpip]

The appointment issue is one that seems to be common across the country, but I don't see much discussion on it.

BTW, you asked me to give you a prod if I hadn't heard back from your LMS friend. Here it is!

[fred_mouse]

I will check with A on Tuesday. Work has been a bit feral for them.