US Election, Isocracy, Work and Home

[tcpip]

In the global village, the local council election of the United States of America is certainly the most important. Like many others I was rather surprised (and quite horrified) by the election of Donald Trump this week. The psephologists were universally wrong. But at least they're doing the right thing and working out why. There has been a lot of silly opinion pieces trying to justify why the result occured, but the pre-election claims of Michael Moore turned out to be most prescient, not only for guessing that Trump would win but where he would win; namely by a failure to inspire the working-class states of the Great Lakes - that is really the only reason that Clinton lost; Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Unsurprisingly, I am currently in the midst of an article for the Isocracy Network on the election results with a few prescriptive solutions, the most obvious being don't ignore the working class. It also serves as a good focus for the Isocracy AGM (FB link) next Saturday at Trades Hall with Dr. Hans Baer speaking on the relationship between enviromentalism and socialism. This is certainly an issue which has relevance for the occasionally strained relationship here between the Australian Labor Party and the Greens. Similar lessons can be learned in this context; the importance of the environment may be paramount, but the protection of the enviroment will only occur with the support of the working class.

Speaking of work, in my fairly-well paid technocratic role it has been a very demanding week having returned from overseas. I fielded what I could what on the other side of the world, but the bulk of the effort was carried by NinjaDan who is really feeling the weight of what has been an increasingly quantity of technical requests, and certainly far beyond the capacity of 1 EFT looking after two HPC systems. In other work-related news caseopaya has received a new job offer with a good pay rise and engaged in the delightful act of handing a resignation letter to a firm which won the Golden Turd for poor work conditions.

In home life we still have the delightful Jane keeping us company at least for a few more days. There's big hole in the ceiling of our dining-room due to the effects of the water pipe issues from before we left for overseas and one in the back of the wardrobe in our attic bedroom which probably leads to Naria or somesuch. The Owners Corporation is currently having a debate on whether to keep the Courtesy Bus or not, which led me to make a post on the appropriate closed group on Facebook where I illustrated some of the unspoken costs of getting rid of it; it seems that most people who engaged in that discussion are also supportive in retaining the service. Finally, last night went to visit Brendan who has been having his usual unluck with housemates. It was good to catch up as always, and we laughed ourselves through the quite moving NZ film Hunt for the Wilderpeople, which of course reminded me that I need to visit the home country again.

Comments

[zenicurean.livejournal.com]

Being a foreign policy geek, I've recently engaged myself in analysis of Trump's foreign policy pronouncements. Of course, I've only been able to deal with the stuff he's said during the campaign, so nothing is definite and my views may not be terrifically useful in the long run, since it's a very different thing to actually run the country than it is to talk about it.

But thus far it's an amazing repository of strange things, some basically good but marred by Trump's inexperience and irresponsibility, many just inherently bad, and many more that are just really strange or scary. And the man hasn't even been inaugurated yet. His immigration views appear particularly deleterious. I think that, on balance, we're headed for darker times.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Without having a detailed review of his pronouncements (as contradictory as they often are), he seems to be a weird combination of isolationism combined with warlike fury when it comes to foreign political policy. His policy on tariffs is just mad and will have serious effects on both the US economy and others that depend on trade.

Interesting times.

[zenicurean.livejournal.com]

I would agree with you on that. Sadly, his tariff rhetoric resonated with voters. Repatriating manufacturing jobs from the far-off lands of Microprocessor and Robot appears to have been a very compelling position. But as you discuss below, it's unlikely to work, and if Trump engages in the tariff wars he has promised, the poorest and the most vulnerable of American society are likely to pay a disproportionately high price for it. (Both metaphorically and, alas, rather literally.)

I'm also concerned about Trump's manifest inexperience with foreign and military policy in general. I think it would be crucial for him to recruit a foreign policy team quickly and on the basis of expertise, not on the basis of the candidates' early commitment to Trump personally. But I don't know if Trump will be that far-sighted.

Some 538 etc links

[rodney brown (from livejournal.com)]

Somewhere I've seen a posting showing Trump support in income groups, and the lowest income group
- probably brown and or female supported Clinton.

Recent (after the election)
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-trump-got-his-edge/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-was-stronger-where-the-economy-is-weaker/
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-couldnt-win-over-white-women/
2016-02
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/republican-leaning-cities-are-at-greater-risk-of-job-automation/

Listing a number of issues
http://www.samefacts.com/2016/11/elections/2016/dont-just-do-something-stand-there-2/
https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com.au/2016/11/trump-misleading-people.html
...
The story is in fact told better than I ever could by Bruce Bartlett, who worked in the Reagan White House and for George HW Bush, so I’ll just summarise it here. The story starts under Reagan, who provided pressure to withdraw the Fairness Doctrine, which was similar to what keeps UK broadcasters from being partisan. Initially that allowed the rise of talk radio, and then Fox News. Gradually being partisan at Fox meant misinforming its viewers, such that Fox viewers are clearly less well informed than viewers of other news providers. One analysis suggested over half of the facts stated on Fox are untrue: UK readers may well remember them reporting that Birmingham was a no-go area for non-Muslims.


Which politicians have ever proposed a feasible plan for finding meaningful work for the working class in Rust belt areas? Education in the US has fairly punitive costs and the Great Recession has decreased it's worth.
Especially with rising fears of automation or foreign outsourcing.
IBM's ten years to master rule of thumb probably applies for tradesmen too.

Re: Some 538 etc links

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

> Which politicians have ever proposed a feasible plan for finding meaningful work for the working class in Rust belt areas? <

Bingo. A protest vote (in, in this case, a decision not to vote) reflects not the most rational decision but an emotive one.

As the article on automation points out quite well, it is Red state cities where the fear of automation is palpable, and the professionals of Blue state cities is considered with some disdain at best.

The mainly macro 'blog piece was superb, an starkly illustrates the difference between the US and other countries.

[wildilocks.livejournal.com]

don't ignore the working class

... and thus we come to the next chapter in the future of civilisation.

The working class, for now, is not yet extinct. But within a decade, this class will be massively eroded. It's days are numbered. And that makes Trump the bastion of the final stand of the working class: a class that is about to go the way of the dinosaur. The rust belts will not repopulate: the forgotten towns will not be invigorated; at least, not by giving yet more tax cuts to the obscenely wealthy (clearly, there are other ways). The educated classes know this, and it's why we are so shocked by this outcome. Nothing, absolutely NOTHING can turn back the tide of automation, and this election didn't even begin to touch on the issue that will be bearing down heavily over the coming decade.

How important will the working class be after self-driving trucks have taken the most common job from all the red states?

This stage is a last, desperate angry protest from a class which is in permanent decline. Within 2 election cycles, their votes will no longer be relevant: they won't exist as they do now.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Automation has been major a force since the 1940s in reducing the size of the industrial work-class. But of course, without access to capital, the option for such people is unemployment - and that's what they fear.

The main issue which will cause unemployment, even more so than automation, is Trump's policy on tariffs.

[kingtycoon.livejournal.com]

I know some analysis wants to say that dissafected working class people in the Great Lakes were moving toward trump and that's just wrong.

As your correspondent on the ground here living in a post industrial wasteland as a working class manufacturer I can tell you that white suburban men were his biggest supporters as they always have been for any republican.

It's the very low turnout that lost this for Clinton and my only real comfort right now is that this election thoroughly repudiates the idea of defensive voting. People, it seems want someone to vote for and can't be seriously motivated just to vote against someone.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

There were modest gains for Trump in the region, mainly from what I can tell in the hinterlands. But these were dwarfed by the drop in the Democrat vote.

2012 elections

Illinois WTA 3,019,512 57.60% 20 2,135,216 40.73%
Iowa WTA 822,544 51.99% 6 730,617 46.18%
Minnesota WTA 1,546,167 52.65% 10 1,320,225 44.96%

Michigan WTA 2,564,569 54.21% 16 2,115,256 44.71%
Ohio WTA 2,827,710 50.67% 18 2,661,433 47.69%
Pennsylvania WTA 2,990,274 51.97% 20 2,680,434 46.59%
Wisconsin[124] WTA 1,620,985 52.83% 10 1,407,966 45.89%


2016 elections

Illinois WTA 2,982,415 55.41% 20 2,121,573 39.41% –
Iowa WTA 650,780 41.71% – 798,923 51.21%
Minnesota WTA 1,364,067 46.41% 10 1,321,120 44.95%

Michigan WTA 2,264,807 47.33% – 2,277,914 47.60% 16
Ohio WTA 2,320,596 43.51% – 2,776,683 52.06%
Pennsylvania WTA 2,817,409 47.60% – 2,890,633 48.84% 20
Wisconsin WTA 1,383,926 46.94% – 1,411,432 47.87% 10

Slate Star Codex: You are still crying wolf

[rodney brown (from livejournal.com)]

http://slatestarcodex.com/2016/11/16/you-are-still-crying-wolf/
...
It asks whether Democrats have “cried wolf” so many times that nobody believes them anymore. And so:

When “honorable and decent men” like McCain and Romney “are reflexively dubbed racists simply for opposing Democratic policies, the result is a G.O.P. electorate that doesn’t listen to admonitions when the genuine article is in their midst”.
...
I have a different perspective. Back in October 2015, I wrote that the media narrative of Trump as “the white power candidate” and “the first openly white supremacist candidate to have a shot at the Presidency in the modern era” were being fabricated out of thin air. I said that “the media narrative that Trump is doing some kind of special appeal-to-white-voters voodoo is unsupported by any polling data”, and predicted that:

If Trump were the Republican nominee, he could probably count on equal or greater support from minorities as Romney or McCain before him.

Well, guess what? The votes are in, and Trump got greater support from minorities than Romney or McCain before him. You can read the Washington Post article, Trump Got More Votes From People Of Color Than Romney Did, or look at the raw data (source) ...

-- I should go check the data & check 538 again. Note that somewhere I've read that the turnout percentages will continue to creep up as the postal votes are counted, so that the early figures don't necessarily compare with past elections.