Labor vs Greens: A Contrarian View?
Jul. 31st, 2012 11:07 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
tcpipI have just returned from a Collingwood-Fitzroy meeting of the ALP with the ominous title "Labor vs the Greens". The chief speaker was Jane Garnett, a state MP and national vice-president who recently wrote a rather unsophisticated piece on the Greens. The speech was mainly the sort of platitudes you'd expect; how wonderful Labor was and how evil the Greens were. Most of the comments and questions afterwards followed this line, bar one wise individual who pointed out how Labor was absolutely trounced in Queensland and New South Wales, and it can be hardly expected that the Greens were at fault for that.
I was given the opportunity to speak and mentioned that for several years now I have been advocating a coalition between Labor and the Greens. I reminded the audience that the Greens are not an Australian phenomenon, but rather an international movement. I also pointed out that the Greens are not going away; they draw their votes from an inner urban middle class (an objective basis) with a social liberal ideology (a subjective basis) - just as Labor draws its votes from the working class with a democratic socialist ideology. My final remarks were that there was virtually nothing to be gained by Labor going to war with the Greens. Even if the campaign to do so was wildly successful it halved the Greens vote, that would provide Labor 1% in the 2PP stakes - Labor needs to win back working-class people who have gone to the Coalition instead. Win 5-6% of those voters back, we're back at equal pegging.
I prefaced my introduction that I felt that I was probably in a minority of one at the meeting. Mathematical analysis, whilst inevitably true, is often little competition against ideological faith. As I left the pub, I confess I felt very disappointed; predicting from the numbers that the Labor Party would be in permanent opposition without an alliance with the Greens did not go down so well. Or so I thought; several people came out afterwards and thanked me for standing up; not only for having the courage to give a contrary view, but for giving one that actually that had analysis, and was correct in its conclusions.
The Labor Party cannot govern without an alliance with the Greens. The Greens cannot implement their policies without a Labor government. Despite the bad blood between the two, that is why they need to form a coalition. Unfortunately, I suspect it will only be after a devastating loss at the next Federal election that the leadership of Labor and the Greens will come to this realisation.
Nota bene: A piece by Alex White was also circulated at the meeting; I have had the opportunity to engage in some comments on that.
I was given the opportunity to speak and mentioned that for several years now I have been advocating a coalition between Labor and the Greens. I reminded the audience that the Greens are not an Australian phenomenon, but rather an international movement. I also pointed out that the Greens are not going away; they draw their votes from an inner urban middle class (an objective basis) with a social liberal ideology (a subjective basis) - just as Labor draws its votes from the working class with a democratic socialist ideology. My final remarks were that there was virtually nothing to be gained by Labor going to war with the Greens. Even if the campaign to do so was wildly successful it halved the Greens vote, that would provide Labor 1% in the 2PP stakes - Labor needs to win back working-class people who have gone to the Coalition instead. Win 5-6% of those voters back, we're back at equal pegging.
I prefaced my introduction that I felt that I was probably in a minority of one at the meeting. Mathematical analysis, whilst inevitably true, is often little competition against ideological faith. As I left the pub, I confess I felt very disappointed; predicting from the numbers that the Labor Party would be in permanent opposition without an alliance with the Greens did not go down so well. Or so I thought; several people came out afterwards and thanked me for standing up; not only for having the courage to give a contrary view, but for giving one that actually that had analysis, and was correct in its conclusions.
The Labor Party cannot govern without an alliance with the Greens. The Greens cannot implement their policies without a Labor government. Despite the bad blood between the two, that is why they need to form a coalition. Unfortunately, I suspect it will only be after a devastating loss at the next Federal election that the leadership of Labor and the Greens will come to this realisation.
Nota bene: A piece by Alex White was also circulated at the meeting; I have had the opportunity to engage in some comments on that.
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no subject
Date: 2012-08-01 01:39 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-08-02 03:01 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-08-02 03:12 am (UTC)You assume correctly.
A feature I have noted among many politicians, and would be politicians, is that they identify strongly with their position and their performance in a very personal manner, when in reality (as many elections show) that contribution is probably around 10% of their overall vote. In reality it is the party that they represent for the other 90%.
Of course, with single-member electorates this personal association is far more common, and indeed, probably made sense in the 19th century when most MPs were part of a loose coalition at best. These days, regardless of their position on the political spectrum, the Lenninist model of "democratic centralism" seems to apply.
Which is certainly a significant contributing factor to why I'm not an member of parliament myself.
no subject
Date: 2012-08-02 12:02 pm (UTC)Meanwhile, it's not even clear to me that Greens and Labor even need to work together. They just need to not to waste money by working so hard against each other!
no subject
Date: 2012-08-02 11:41 pm (UTC)See, you understand opportunity cost. I'm amazed that I have to struggle to explain this simple concept to so many people in the ALP, and worse still, among those on the nominal left.