Dead Rats, Conference and Ministry, Election 2010

[tcpip]

As I was leaving for Queensland on Friday morning I noticed that Calamity rat had suffered another stroke, and he died later that day. One of our trio he'd just made it past two years of age and had been in care for a few months after his first stroke which caused paralysis on the back legs. This was, of course, after a removal of a tumour and subsequent emergency. Despite all these medical issues Calamity and being very shy as a ratling he was always an affectionate and apparently happy little rodent. He now joins Astaroth rabbit in our small backyard. With a degree of irony, 'stroth is providing blood and bone for some newly planted carrots and 'lamity is doing the same for parsley.

As mentioned I have returned from three days in Queenland, a ICUU/ANZUUA conference on growth, vitality and leadership lead by Rev. Jill McAlister of the People's Church of Kalamazoo. The Conference was held in a late-deco former nunnery for the Sisters of Mercy surrounded by forest, which was just a beautiful location. It was a great opportunity to, once again, meet up with the leadership of various congregations in the region one of the most significant decisions was to establish a ministry school along the lines of Meadville-Lombard or Starr King. Further, I have decided to take up such studies myself, probably starting at the end of this year. It is something I have had in the back of my mind for some time, and this conference has spurred the decision.

Finally, whilst all this was happening there was an election occurring. The results have led to a hung parliament at this stage, with Labor on 72 seats, the conservative Coalition on 71, the Greens 1, 4 independents and 2 still in doubt (Hasluck, Brisbane), both of which should go Labor's way on postals and pre-polls. Whilst Labor suffered heavily on the primary vote (and especially in Queensland), nearly all of this has gone to the Greens, with a very minor swing to the Coalition overall and Labor still leading 50.7% to 49.3% on two-party preferred. I have much to say about Labor's strategy and tactics in this election and in the wider analysis which will be written up in a forthcoming article. In the meantime, it seems almost certain that Labor will return to power albeit with the support of minor parties and independents which is possibly the best thing that could happen; good governance with good watchmen. Edit I've conducted an analysis of the postal votes which contains a few surprises.

Comments

[laura-seabrook.livejournal.com]

In the meantime, it seems almost certain that Labor will return to power albeit with the support of minor parties and independents which is possibly the best thing that could happen; good governance with good watchmen.

I tend to agree.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

My fellow members in the Labor Party are going to be quite surprised that I have made this comment, I suspect! :)

[mr-figgy.livejournal.com]

It's great to see a country where Greens could have any power at all. In Canada they're visible enough to be invited to Federal Leadership Debates yet even the leader has no seat, despite being one of the more impressive debate participants.

Also, pet sympathies. I unfortunately am in rented space and don't have suitable places to bury a pet, so I think they cremated Oona the Hedgehog with other pets. But I was happy to get a letter stating they had donated something to an animal-related charity on her behalf.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Canada has an absolutely insane voting system which ensures that the Greens and NDP are largely disenfranchised. I don't know whether there is much of a movement there for proportional or preferential voting, but there should be. The days of first-past-the-post are gone.

Although I suspect, like the metric system, the U.S. will be last to make the change!

[mr-figgy.livejournal.com]

There were referendums about it in three provinces, including Ontario where I reside which is important and populous. I feel that this measure failed, even though I voted for it, because it was rushed to people who were given very little information about it and newspapers hardly helped them. People probably saw the ballot and thought "What the heck is this? Looks like some sort of trick so that people I don't vote for get more of a power share."

The debacle irritates me. And since this was decided once, I have to wonder if people will get annoyed if it hits a ballot again. Which is too bad, that's not how they reacted when Quebec had a vote about independence more than once.

My brief comment on pollbludger.com

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Current state of play is Labor 72, Coalition 71, Greens 1, independents 4 and 2 doubtful (Hasluck and Brisbane). Just to clarify, Boothby is not doubtful in my opinion, the Coalition will win it. Lindsay is not doubtful, Labor will win it with a huge advantage in postal votes. Hasluck will probably go to Labor due to the significant advantage they have with the postal votes. Brisbane is very close, but I'm leaning towards Labor on the same basis; Beavis had a majority of 1800 last election on postals and prepolls and the margin is less than 900.

So that makes it Labor 74, Coalition 71, Greens 1, independents 4. One of those independents is Wilkie and that result is by no means certain either with Labor still with a fair chance there. In any case I'd be very surprisied if he doesn't support a Labor minority government, along with Bandt for the Greens. As for the other independents, Windsor has previously supported Labor in a hung parliament (NSW) and is very keen on a carbon price. Oakeshott on the other hand really wants a NBN. Katter wants protectionism and infrastructure for rural Australia/Queensland.

Whomever is in power will have to deal with a Senate where Labor and the Greens are a majority. Dealing with this is requisite for stable and effective government. Also as the Liberal Senator George Brandis pointed out on election night, moral legitimacy in a hung parliament belongs to the party with the highest TPP vote. Of course, he said this when the Coalition was in front. I would hope he is sufficiently honourable not to change his mind at this point.

Add these factors to the requirement that the incumbent remains as Prime Minister until rejected by the House of Representatives. This is important; the Coalition needs 76 votes for this to occur; Labor only needs 75 to *retain* power.

Overall, it seems very likely to me that this will result in a Labor minority government. Which is actually a very good result for Australia.

Re: My brief comment on pollbludger.com

[ctudball.livejournal.com]

I didn't know about the incumbent ruling; why then is everyone saying we'd have to have another election if neither party can reach 76 seats?

Re: My brief comment on pollbludger.com

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Because "everyone" is wrong :)

If I can repeat a letter in today's Age

How it must all now play out

THERE is a vast amount of ignorance on the rules concerning a hung parliament. There are suggestions that the party with the highest number of votes has some preference, or that independents ''would be required to sign a document stating that they would support a particular side'' (''Hung result rewrites the political rules'', The Sunday Age, 22/8).

The actual position is:

■The incumbent Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, remains Prime Minister until she resigns or is rejected by the House of Representatives.

■Both sides will seek to attract the support of members; they don't take it in turns to try to form government.

■Even if the Leader of the Opposition obtains majority support of other members, the Prime Minister is entitled to remain as Prime Minister and to meet the House of Representatives in that capacity.

■The independents are not required to sign a compact with the incoming government. It is convenient if they do, but it is not an essential requirement.

What is an essential requirement is the support of the lower house. If Tony Abbott obtains that support, he is entitled to form a government, whether or not he has a signed compact with independents.

Ian Killey, former general counsel Department of Premier and Cabinet (Victoria), Bentleigh

Speaking of which The Age also printed my brief two-line letter prior to the election - this was after the announcement of the "boatphone". JULIA Gillard wants to be prime minister. Tony Abbott wants to be personally in charge of assessing asylum seekers. I can see a compromise here.

Interestingly, the possibility still holds :)

Re: My brief comment on pollbludger.com

[ctudball.livejournal.com]

That does help explain it. Thanks :)

[17catherines.livejournal.com]

I'm so sorry to hear about Calamity.

I'm interested to read your analysis of the election; I haven't seen anything this optimistic anywhere else. I hope you'll unpack this a bit later.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Based on the latest AEC results, the ABC is now calling Denison for Labor; which is a pity in a way because I quite like Wilkie (I even shared a platform with him once - an anti-Iraq war rally). The thing about Denison is because the Labor, the Greens, the Liberals and Wilkie all polled reasonably well, the order of exclusion and distribution of preferences is quite extreme.

This makes it Labor 73, Coalition 71, Greens 1, independents 3 and 2 still doubtful (Hasluck and Brisbane). The ABC is calling the two doubtfuls for the Coalition, but I think they're wrong based on the quantity of postal votes and how many of those were submitted by the ALP. I am more optimistic about Hasluck than Brisbane however.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Oh, and even Flynn (Qld) may still be in the game...

AEC 2PP
LNP 31,801
ALP 29,940

But postals, based on submission are:
ALP 4,219
LNP 1,530

[17catherines.livejournal.com]

Interesting. The tally room is still saying 71 Labor and 72 Coalition when I look at it.

It is a pity about Wilkie (since I think, if things came down to it, he'd probably help Labor form government, and I'd love to see him in parliament), but at this point, I'm happy to see Labor getting any seats they can. Well, maybe not Grayndler...

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Why not Grayndler? Albanese is one of the good guys in my opinion...

[17catherines.livejournal.com]

I have nothing against Albanese, but since this might well be the Greens' only chance to do something in government (since if they blow it, they will probably be stuffed permanently), I think it might be helpful to have more than one of them in there.

[lardarsegreg.livejournal.com]

Having only recently heard anything about the election that I've had the time to listen to, I have a lot of respect for the current prime minister. She called the election just after a leadership change, which is a very good way of giving the people a say in who runs the country. Gordon Brown should've done the same, I think...

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

There was two ways this could have gone in terms of calling the election.

If Rudd was still in power, he would have to drag it out. He needed to grind the mining companies down on their campaign against the Resources Rent. It was a hard concept - even harder than the ETS which has the neat 'cap and trade' summary - and required time for people to understand.

With Gillard in power the earlier it was called, the better. As it was she probably left it about two weeks too late.

Still, your general principle is correct. A change of leadership necessitates an election soon afterwards as an ethical matter; providing people a genuine choice.

[andricongirl.livejournal.com]

shame wilkie may not make it, oh well, I think labor have got the kick up the bum they deserve. hope they take a good look at the independants and greens and maybe get a few ideas of whats needed to help them next time

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

I quite like independents of the ilk of Rob Oakeshott and Tony Windsor. Others.. well, they are a bit different.

[andricongirl.livejournal.com]

things ar'a bit different oop norf ;p

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Oh, I see you've been reading usekh's post as well :)

[zhenzhi.livejournal.com]

sweet dreams calamity rat. xoxo