Gillard as PM and The (Trans) Human Spirit

[tcpip]

Beleaguered by a run of poor opinion polls and lacking support within the parliamentary caucus (with an allegedly abrasive personality), Kevin Rudd stood down as Prime Minister and was replaced by Julia Gillard. There has been a predictable wave of enthusiasm for Australia's first female Prime Minister, and in the first few days she has made a number of popular policy statements (not moving into the Lodge until elected in her own right, support for a carbon tax rather than an ETS, wanting a "sustainable population", affirming rather than swearing an oath to office). I predict in the next day or so she'll have an agreement with the mining companies as well. The only remaining liability for Federal Labor after this is Conroy holding the Ministry of government approved information. Finally, an insightful and predictive article by Greg Milne points out the serious problems Abbot is going to have with Gillard.

Last Sunday gave the address at the Unitarians on The Evolution of the Human Spirit, which is perhaps better understood as the development of human ideas. With broad sociological brushstrokes I took the opportunity to reconstruct the better elements of materialist theories of structured social development with concerns of the means of communication and mode of consciousness. In September it I'll be speaking at the Melbourne summit for The Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence on "Social Formations in a Transhumanist World".

Comments

[mellotron_breakfast]

Hopefully this goes better than Canada's first female Prime Minister. If you're not aware, look up the moment in Canadian history when Brian Mulroney stood down due to a horrible drop in public opinion. Campbell took his place, but the negative opinion still carried through to the election, where the party apparently won fewer seats than you'd find in a Honda Civic.

[lederhosen]

We've had a few of those at state level, where they picked a female candidate as a placeholder once it was clear the next election was lost, but I don't think Gillard's in that category. A lot of the problems with Rudd seemed to be specifically with Rudd rather than the party in general, so Gillard still has a decent chance.

[tcpip]

Although the last opinion polls did indicate that Rudd was turning the tide and getting an election winning lead back. Labor was spooked by a period of bad polling and especially internal polling.

The interesting thing I find about this with Labor's poll bounce is that it indicates that the Labor vote is "soft" - a problem of being a little too flexible over the years and losing sight of what the party stands for.

[br3nda]

ditto in NZ - but the oposition party won the next election and Auntie Helen was prime minister for a decade.

I'm confused on Gillard's politics. I've seen social justice bloggers call her anti-refugee and anti-native people -- and then in the next breath declare themselves mega-ultra-gillard fans for live.

[tcpip]

She's not anti-refugee as such, but rather leaden footed about it. She did nothing about temporary protection visas and mandatory detention when she was immigration shadow minister, but preferred to play ultrasafe. It actually took a member of the Labor right to really get things going on a Ministerial level. It's one issue I suspect she's a bit spooked about - especially after the "Tampa election" of 2001 and would prefer to stonewall anything relating to upsetting the outer suburban demographic.

[tcpip]

I remember that; Campbell was up against a very popular Liberal leader, ran a terrible campaign and had been handed power when the ProgCons were very much on the way out.

I don't think any of that applies in this case!

[mellotron_breakfast]

Yeah, seems like everything that could go wrong for her, did. Well, glad it looks better, and for (hopefully) a more progressive leader than I would expect from ProgCons.

[http://users.livejournal.com/_fustian/]

Singularity Summit AU! Much more exciting than WorldCon. :)

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Well, I do intend to go to both!

[http://users.livejournal.com/_fustian/]

Oh, as do I. But still: SingInst!!1 Look forward to hearing your talk.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Yeah, it's a good gig :)

BTW, we should plot, isocracy-wise... I want you involved *nods*...

[http://users.livejournal.com/_fustian/]

Cool. We should chat at WorldCon/SingCon.

[laura-seabrook.livejournal.com]

went to the last two worldcons in Australia, but shall give this year's a miss.

[angel80.livejournal.com]

That article in the Oz - unbelievably sexist. Why can't they just admit that she wipes the floor with Abbott on her debating skills.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

That did strike me as well - the lines about a "comely head" etc. But the better point of the article was that whilst Rudd is a policy wonk, a pugnacious character like Abbot who really isn't interested in the debate can end up look like he's taking "firm action" (when in reality it's just firm opposition) to a ditherer.

Gillard's beating Abbot because she can stonewall him, make positive policy suggestions (as she's done so far) and all he's left with is a feral attitude. Under such circumstances, he's toast.

[lederhosen.livejournal.com]

all he's left with is a feral attitude

And, as he never ceases to remind us, three female children! Because that establishes his fem cred right there.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

It reminds me very much of Keating's response to Howard's censure motion; there's great moment when Keating lays right into Howard for arrogantly claiming that he knows something about families that the rest of us don't.

It's one of the greatest political slapdowns of all time, well worth a watch:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=roIeVEf5alk&

[zhenzhi.livejournal.com]

2nd post in a row on my f-page which is disaproving of Conroy! hmmmmm....
i was very caught up in that predictable wave of enthusiasm. i was completely sucked in by feminist fervour! lol!

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Oh, aren't we all? :)

I'm going to have dig out that letter I had published in The Age a couple of years ago where I claimed that Gillard was being overlooked as leader because "she's from Victoria, she's from the left and, well, she's a she".

[zey.livejournal.com]

I predict in the next day or so she'll have an agreement with the mining companies as well.

The deal was all but complete by Rudd says "Twiggy Forrest" (apparently not a bear porn name!), which was what led to that "the super-tax is dead" comment in the media last week. (To get that sort of back-down and enthusiasm, Rudd probably promised something to compensate the industry for their fear, pain and suffering :/)

Still, if Gillard can get some political mileage with the swingers by claiming the back-down was all her own effort, best of luck to her.

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

The comment from the article: "The oil and gas industry has been buzzing for weeks with rumours of an imminent deal that will involve projects in the growing coal-seam gas sector being placed within an existing tax regime for the petroleum sector", seems about right, although was reported some time ago, noting some difficulties.

In the longer term it seems that other nations are also considering a tax regime along this model, contrary to what the mining industy has been saying.

In the longer run - as that article suggests - China "sees as a means of conserving resources, slowing environmental destruction and rebalancing an economy that delivers bloated corporate profits at the expense of households".

The mining industry may have played very hardball on this issue, and may achieve a temporary truce, but in the medium and long run they are very much on a losing wicket.

Singularity Summit

[(Anonymous)]

Sounds like an interesting topic you are speaking on. Do you have an abstract?
Will you be attending the whole Summit?
I will look forward to your presentation.

Adam

Re: Singularity Summit

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

No abstract yet, but I know it will be an elaboration on the presentation "The Evolution of the Human Spirit" - but a bit tighter!

Intending to be there for the whole Summit.