Lev Lafayette's journal

I’m looking at the various options for what my partner and I can do and what is likely to happen with the US, and I find this seriously depressing, so I’d love if anyone reading this could provide alternatives or reasons that they think some of the unlikely possible options are actually pretty likely (and why).

Option 1 Fleeing Fascism: My best guess is the US slides into full on fascism, somewhere between Hungary and Nazi Germany, and after my mother dies (likely in the next year or so, she’s 90) my partner and I flee the US, likely not to Canada unless it looks likely that 47 won’t invade, so our options are Portugal (you can buy your way in with money we’ll have from my mom), or New Zealand (same). The problem is I utterly hate the idea of having to leave Portland and our friends, but I’m not too keen on living under fascism either.

Other options (I’m saying how likely I think they are, if you disagree, please let me know, and also why):

Option 2 Social and economic collapse: 47 and Musk are idiots who aren’t remotely careful, so this seems like a real option that seems somewhat likely, but I’m uncertain , I also find this far superior to option 1, in large part because while it will suck, people won’t be disappeared to Central American torture prisons, and it likely won’t last that long. I’d expect the states to pick up the pieces and we might even end up with the US balkanizing.

Option 3 Military coup/civil war: If 47 (as he seems very likely to do) invades Canada or Greenland, or both, some portion of the US military will likely refuse to attack NATO allies. If it’s enough, we get a military coupe, which is terrible, but also a serious improvement, since I’d expect them to push for free elections soon. OTOH, if only some of them refuse we could easily end up in full on civil war. I think the overall option is moderately likely, but have no idea which way things would go, and in the case of a full-on civil war, I would want to be on another continent.

Option 4 Low Violence Popular Uprising: This has happened in numerous nations; enough people take to the streets and the leaders flee. I’d love for this to happen here, but I also firmly believe it won’t. The US lacks that sort of hard-core protest culture. It could easily happen in France, I don’t believe it will happen here.

Option 5 Free elections: I think this is only slightly more likely than a successful popular uprising. It’s been 3 months, 47 will have been in power for almost 22 months for the mid-term elections, and the Republinazis have shown themselves to be absolutely fine with eliminating democracy. Blue states may or may not keep far elections, but red and many purple states won’t.

Option 6 Secession: This is my strong preference – either for the West Coast to join Canada or to become its own nation, and in either case, I’d never need to worry about sharing a nation with the powerful wealthy elites in hard core red states like Alabama, Idaho, or Iowa. The problem is that attempting this either results in an ugly civil war that our side loses, or someone needs to seize nukes and a way to deliver them. I expect that in CA at least there is at least some discussions about this, but I have absolutely no idea how likely I think this is.

I don’t see any other remotely likely options, and I really don’t like the likely ones other than 1-3. What do you think?