Time Management in a Heatwave
Jan. 15th, 2014 10:52 pmThe next few days are going to be very busy indeed. Tomorrow I am running a session of the second chapter for Masks of Nyarlathotep which will probably see the intrepid investigators make their way to London. The day after that I am hoping to finish an article on apartheid and Zionism for the Isocracy Network which promises not to satisfy any partisan positions on the subject. During these next two days at work I'm hoping to finish the first draft of a new course on relational databases (PostgreSQL), version control (Bazaar), and dependency management (Make). On Saturday I have the annual Linux Users of Victoria BBQ to prepare for and attend, followed by a wedding for one of ![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
caseopaya's workmates. On Sunday I'll be giving a presentation to the Melbourne Unitarian Church on Rational Thinking and Emotional Attachments, which will describe some the major limitations to people thinking rationally (e.g., tribalism and custom, argumentative reasoning, confirmation and selection bias, cognitive dissonance and compartmentalisation). After that I'll be participating in a game of GURPS Middle Earth. Somewhere amongst all that I am hoping to get the 22nd issue of RPG Review out, which is now few weeks late; hardly my worst result on that account.
Under normal circumstances this agenda would be possible if a little challenging. Under the current heatwave that has swept across from Perth to South-Eastern Australia it is going to be extremely difficult indeed. In all honesty I cannot recall a time in my almost half-century where it has been this hot for such an extended period of time.* At the same time of course, it has been bitterly cold in the North American winter and equally mild in Europe and Russia. Does this prove or disprove global warming? The sensible answer is, of course, not in itself. But when the ten hottest years on record (since 1880) are all from the last fifteen, and when the trajectory is a fairly steep climb in the last fifty, and where net natural forcings would actually indicate global cooling, then perhaps something is up. As these possibilities are considered I return to the notes I have for the address on Sunday; many people have partisan beliefs and tribal loyalties. Presenting people with facts and reasons on why they might be incorrect often causes them to become less likely to change as they have to admit initial error. Under such circumstances one is led to rather pessimistic conclusions of the ability of the human species to face up to the environmental and social changes necessary for the survival of the species. Still, we managed to avoid nuclear armageddon. Perhaps reason will prevail this time as well.
* Reminder of the 2009 heat wave. I am obviously still feeling the effects of the Perth trip.
caseopaya's workmates. On Sunday I'll be giving a presentation to the Melbourne Unitarian Church on Rational Thinking and Emotional Attachments, which will describe some the major limitations to people thinking rationally (e.g., tribalism and custom, argumentative reasoning, confirmation and selection bias, cognitive dissonance and compartmentalisation). After that I'll be participating in a game of GURPS Middle Earth. Somewhere amongst all that I am hoping to get the 22nd issue of RPG Review out, which is now few weeks late; hardly my worst result on that account.Under normal circumstances this agenda would be possible if a little challenging. Under the current heatwave that has swept across from Perth to South-Eastern Australia it is going to be extremely difficult indeed. In all honesty I cannot recall a time in my almost half-century where it has been this hot for such an extended period of time.* At the same time of course, it has been bitterly cold in the North American winter and equally mild in Europe and Russia. Does this prove or disprove global warming? The sensible answer is, of course, not in itself. But when the ten hottest years on record (since 1880) are all from the last fifteen, and when the trajectory is a fairly steep climb in the last fifty, and where net natural forcings would actually indicate global cooling, then perhaps something is up. As these possibilities are considered I return to the notes I have for the address on Sunday; many people have partisan beliefs and tribal loyalties. Presenting people with facts and reasons on why they might be incorrect often causes them to become less likely to change as they have to admit initial error. Under such circumstances one is led to rather pessimistic conclusions of the ability of the human species to face up to the environmental and social changes necessary for the survival of the species. Still, we managed to avoid nuclear armageddon. Perhaps reason will prevail this time as well.
* Reminder of the 2009 heat wave. I am obviously still feeling the effects of the Perth trip.
