Date: 2009-12-18 04:05 am (UTC)
It does, but if people were that rational about risk decisions, nobody would buy lottery tickets.

Most people do risk analysis on lottery tickets; it's just based on affordable fun rather than probability of winning.

Two prominent findings from this literature are that punishment certainty is far more consistently found to deter crime than punishment severity

OK, that seems to be fair enough; than you for that. It then becomes a multiple metric of ratios, ie., what increase in punishment severity reflects what change in punishment certainty.

the extra-legal consequences of crime seem at least as great a deterrent as the legal consequences

That part is certainly interesting. It seems that despite the existential angst of 'hell is society', it would appear that social isolation is even worse.

Further, as discussed here...

From the abstract: This article shows that optimal fines should rise with the severity of the infraction, that is, the penalty should "fit the crime."

In other words, this certainly does not contradict with what I have been describing. The severity of the infraction is, and must be, a subjective matter when a victim is involved, assuming that tests of sincerity are confirmed.
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