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John Howard is Brilliant, and the Labor Party has no courage. The New Zealand option.
There have been only two elections in the past ten years that I have guessed wrong. The 1999 Victorian state election and this Federal election. And in this election I must admit, that Howard's cunning and sheer capacity to strip himself of any veneer of moral integrity in the mindless pursuit of power surprised me.
Interest rates. What a plan of evil genius that was.
See, this is how it worked: Over the past eight and a half years, with massive government cutbacks in services and such enormous increases in household taxation that we now have the highest taxing government ever, our previous public debt has been shifted to a much larger private debt. Not for the big-end of town of course, but rather the private debt of ordinary Australians, who now have the biggest household debt (mortgage, credit card etc) in history. It was an act of little economic dexterity and of course, allowed the opportunity for John Howard's masters to skim a little more cash.
Consider it a market relationship. Certain members of society have a pathological desire more money. Other members of society have a pathological desire for more power. A mutually succesful contractual obligation is derived and lo! we have the ruling class, or at least nearly all of them. Ahh, yes... Class. Not allowed to mentioned that word anymore are we? No, we're all one big happy family in this country all pulling together for one another. But I digress...
Howard put ordinary Australian households in a situation of the worse debt they've ever been in. And then what? He threatens them! "Oh, look out! It's the high interest rate bogeyman!". Indeed, that struck a chord. After all, if interest rates do go up for many households already at the edge of their debt limit it's curtains. And not just metaphorically. Situations like this do lead to those awful suicide-murders with alarming regularity.
And, like the "Never ever GST", the "children overboard" events, or the "weapons of mass destruction" and that enormous list of prior deceptions, it was A BIG LIE. I swear, Howard is so brilliant at this. With his lust for power (rather sad and pathetic at his age, I think), he not only hinges the election campaign on the issue of trust, with no sense of irony, he actually distracts everyone from the possibility that once again he's going to deceive the public again!
Interest rates. Determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia, independent of the edicts of the Government. Primarily influenced by interest rates in economies of size and influence far greater than ours. Howard knows this, after all, he was Treasurer of the country when interest rates were over 20% and he certainly doesn't blame himself for that! The best any government can do is to position our little economy so that any dramatic international changes don't affect us as badly. If you're in doubt of this, do some international comparisons of interest rates of OECD countries over time. When the big economies move, we move with them. And as an export-orientated country, there's not very much we can do about it.
I don't blame the electorate for not knowing this. The overwhelming majority haven't done high school economics, let alone university economics and are completely oblivious to the behaviour of international money markets and the institutional machinations of how interest rates actually work (in a sentence: when the economy is healthy there is usually a demand for more investment which puts pressure on the money supply causing an interest rates increase). Heck, they're battling to work out the family budget each fortnight. And, I must confess, I underestimated it as in election issue as well. After all, I live like a Scottish Calvinist and actually have net savings. Things like massive improvements to public schools, a substantial tax cut for nearly all those earning less than $50,000, protection of old-growth forests, ending dangerous military adventures etc seemed more substantial.
No, I blame the pathetic campaign of the Labor Party which, with all their positives, forgot something that Beazley never did - that there are people out there who are really funding it hard and the prospect of 17.5% interest rates was just a nightmare. So what did Labor do? Did Labor go on a furious angry attack and point out in bold stark terms that this is yet another weapon of mass deception? Of course not, they played right into Howard's hands. Mark Latham signs a big piece of cardboard that endorses the point of view that somehow the Australian government could exert real influence over the flow of capital in the international economy. And as one Liberal commentator pointed out, stunts like that don't change people's minds. But it did put into people's minds that somehow the Australian government could substantially influence international trends. And on the election day, that high number of undecideds came out and played it safe. After all, under Howard, interest rates couldn't possibly rise, could they?
Fear. Uncertainity. Doubt. The essence of John Howards marketing. Like I said, brilliant. And when the next election comes around, when this lie has been exposed, rest assured there will a new one and, perhaps once again, Labor will dither.
Anyway. Richard O'Brien and I got to the Blackburn Primary polling booth at 5.45am. We set up, worked all day and achieved a 3.5% swing to Labor when the rest of the seat went 3.8% to the Liberals. A fairly typical performance from us, but not as good at the 11% gain on primaries we achieved at the Parkville polling booth in the 1999 state election. I reckon a couple of Labor strategists - including Bob McMullin ("Labor's master strategist") -who's losing more elections that Arthur Calwell - needs to be replaced and Rich and I can move in their stead.
However, New Zealand does beckon more (again) as a viable option. And I am a citizen after all..
The election result has underscored my feelings from the last one - which convinced me to move to East Timor - that I can have no pride in being an Australian. We have become a country where "the fair go" is no longer part of the national ethos, we where we lock refugee children up behind razor wire, a country of wowser puritans which is economically myopic, racist to both our indigenous people and migrants and utterly subservient to American foreign policy. And under such circumstances, one has to be a realist and work out whether it is a more efficient use of my energies to try to turn the situation around here, or further the progressive reforms already started in a place like New Zealand.
There are negatives of course. New Zealand, being more isolated from its major trading partners, has a lower purchasing power per capita $21,600 USD (NZ) versus $29,000 USD (NZ), making NZ wages roughly 75% of their Australian equivalent - and no, that's purchasing power, so don't think "but rents are cheaper". Unemployment is lower (4.7% versus 6%) but there's a poor distribution of income, especially at the more extreme points (bottom 10%, top 10%). Infrastructure isn't quite as good on most issues (rail, roads, pipelines) on a per capita basis but in telecommunications they're almost equal ('phones per capita, Internet users per capita) and in some cases they even far surpass Australia (e.g., radio). The electricity production is comparable and less than 1/3 of it comes from fossil fuels (compared to Australia's 91%). The current account deficit and foreign debt is somewhat better than Australia's although at some stage it'd probably be a really good idea to diversify their exports a bit more.
What I find most appealing however is the political system. A unicameral parliament made up of single-member constitutuencies and proportional representation seats with special seats for Maori constitutencies. In the last election (2002) Labor received 41%, Nationals 21%, New Zealand First 10%, ACT 7%, Greens 7%, United Future 7%, Others 7%. From what I can tell, ACT are moderate capitalist libertarians, NZ First are old conservatives, anti-immigration, anti-indigenous rights (and to think my mother is a personal friend of their leader, Winston Peters *shakes head*), United Future is a "family values" party, moderate conservatives with a god-awful website as well.
So whilst NZ isn't some sort of Labor utopia the fact that the nominally "conservative" parties have fragmented into "modern", "traditional" and "reactionary" wings means that I find that I could at least deal with the ACT and the Greens (cf., "geolibertarianism") under a general social democratic orientation. I could live with that. In fact, I think some real mileage can be gained from it, especially given New Zealand's propensity to engage in brave acts of independent foreign and domestic policy. All of this is very encouraging compared to the Australian political landscape.
And besides... There's this little town called Dunedin...
All other events in the past week went well in comparison. Clinton's launch of "Reluctant Saviour" on Australia's foreign policy on East Timor was positive and, having now finished the book, I can recommend it even higher. As I expected, this is a book of disturbing (well, not disturbing to me) facts, and strong theory based on rather common-sense elucidations.
Richard Stallman's presentation on the danger of software patents at the Uni of Melbourne was extremely well attended - at least five hundred people. The straggly haired programmer from the seventies, picked his nose, kicked off his shoes and utterly destroyed the idea that patents are good for software development - remember you, and your users, can be sued for software that you wrote. Want to protect yourself? Well, read the tens of thousands of software patents in Americo-legalese.
Wednesday is Deb's opening for East Timor Women Australia at 6pm Ross House, 247 Flinders lane, Melbourne with East Timorese music, coffee, and nibbles
Finally, on Friday![[livejournal.com profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/external/lj-userinfo.gif)
severina_242 is having her exhibition "Domos Monstrous" with Kerri Michael at the Intrude Gallery, 114 Gertrude St, 6.30 - 8.30 pm. I had a little to do with this, writing the original proposal for the exhibition which, contrary to most art critics who claim the Australian suburban landscape is plain, safe and boring, presents the suburban dream as a disturbing nightmare that is unsettling and dangerous. Come along and support great art.
Update
Where to for workers and the left? forum at 7pm Thursday 14 October, Upstairs, Mac's Hotel 34 Franklin St CITY (Between Swanston and Elizabeth sts). My (paula_angela) fellow speakers are: Fraser Brindley, Greens Councilor, Moreland and Tessa Theocharous, Socialist Alliance candidate, Moreland Council
and I've just applied to join the New Zealand Labour Party.
Interest rates. What a plan of evil genius that was.
See, this is how it worked: Over the past eight and a half years, with massive government cutbacks in services and such enormous increases in household taxation that we now have the highest taxing government ever, our previous public debt has been shifted to a much larger private debt. Not for the big-end of town of course, but rather the private debt of ordinary Australians, who now have the biggest household debt (mortgage, credit card etc) in history. It was an act of little economic dexterity and of course, allowed the opportunity for John Howard's masters to skim a little more cash.
Consider it a market relationship. Certain members of society have a pathological desire more money. Other members of society have a pathological desire for more power. A mutually succesful contractual obligation is derived and lo! we have the ruling class, or at least nearly all of them. Ahh, yes... Class. Not allowed to mentioned that word anymore are we? No, we're all one big happy family in this country all pulling together for one another. But I digress...
Howard put ordinary Australian households in a situation of the worse debt they've ever been in. And then what? He threatens them! "Oh, look out! It's the high interest rate bogeyman!". Indeed, that struck a chord. After all, if interest rates do go up for many households already at the edge of their debt limit it's curtains. And not just metaphorically. Situations like this do lead to those awful suicide-murders with alarming regularity.
And, like the "Never ever GST", the "children overboard" events, or the "weapons of mass destruction" and that enormous list of prior deceptions, it was A BIG LIE. I swear, Howard is so brilliant at this. With his lust for power (rather sad and pathetic at his age, I think), he not only hinges the election campaign on the issue of trust, with no sense of irony, he actually distracts everyone from the possibility that once again he's going to deceive the public again!
Interest rates. Determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia, independent of the edicts of the Government. Primarily influenced by interest rates in economies of size and influence far greater than ours. Howard knows this, after all, he was Treasurer of the country when interest rates were over 20% and he certainly doesn't blame himself for that! The best any government can do is to position our little economy so that any dramatic international changes don't affect us as badly. If you're in doubt of this, do some international comparisons of interest rates of OECD countries over time. When the big economies move, we move with them. And as an export-orientated country, there's not very much we can do about it.
I don't blame the electorate for not knowing this. The overwhelming majority haven't done high school economics, let alone university economics and are completely oblivious to the behaviour of international money markets and the institutional machinations of how interest rates actually work (in a sentence: when the economy is healthy there is usually a demand for more investment which puts pressure on the money supply causing an interest rates increase). Heck, they're battling to work out the family budget each fortnight. And, I must confess, I underestimated it as in election issue as well. After all, I live like a Scottish Calvinist and actually have net savings. Things like massive improvements to public schools, a substantial tax cut for nearly all those earning less than $50,000, protection of old-growth forests, ending dangerous military adventures etc seemed more substantial.
No, I blame the pathetic campaign of the Labor Party which, with all their positives, forgot something that Beazley never did - that there are people out there who are really funding it hard and the prospect of 17.5% interest rates was just a nightmare. So what did Labor do? Did Labor go on a furious angry attack and point out in bold stark terms that this is yet another weapon of mass deception? Of course not, they played right into Howard's hands. Mark Latham signs a big piece of cardboard that endorses the point of view that somehow the Australian government could exert real influence over the flow of capital in the international economy. And as one Liberal commentator pointed out, stunts like that don't change people's minds. But it did put into people's minds that somehow the Australian government could substantially influence international trends. And on the election day, that high number of undecideds came out and played it safe. After all, under Howard, interest rates couldn't possibly rise, could they?
Fear. Uncertainity. Doubt. The essence of John Howards marketing. Like I said, brilliant. And when the next election comes around, when this lie has been exposed, rest assured there will a new one and, perhaps once again, Labor will dither.
Anyway. Richard O'Brien and I got to the Blackburn Primary polling booth at 5.45am. We set up, worked all day and achieved a 3.5% swing to Labor when the rest of the seat went 3.8% to the Liberals. A fairly typical performance from us, but not as good at the 11% gain on primaries we achieved at the Parkville polling booth in the 1999 state election. I reckon a couple of Labor strategists - including Bob McMullin ("Labor's master strategist") -who's losing more elections that Arthur Calwell - needs to be replaced and Rich and I can move in their stead.
However, New Zealand does beckon more (again) as a viable option. And I am a citizen after all..
The election result has underscored my feelings from the last one - which convinced me to move to East Timor - that I can have no pride in being an Australian. We have become a country where "the fair go" is no longer part of the national ethos, we where we lock refugee children up behind razor wire, a country of wowser puritans which is economically myopic, racist to both our indigenous people and migrants and utterly subservient to American foreign policy. And under such circumstances, one has to be a realist and work out whether it is a more efficient use of my energies to try to turn the situation around here, or further the progressive reforms already started in a place like New Zealand.
There are negatives of course. New Zealand, being more isolated from its major trading partners, has a lower purchasing power per capita $21,600 USD (NZ) versus $29,000 USD (NZ), making NZ wages roughly 75% of their Australian equivalent - and no, that's purchasing power, so don't think "but rents are cheaper". Unemployment is lower (4.7% versus 6%) but there's a poor distribution of income, especially at the more extreme points (bottom 10%, top 10%). Infrastructure isn't quite as good on most issues (rail, roads, pipelines) on a per capita basis but in telecommunications they're almost equal ('phones per capita, Internet users per capita) and in some cases they even far surpass Australia (e.g., radio). The electricity production is comparable and less than 1/3 of it comes from fossil fuels (compared to Australia's 91%). The current account deficit and foreign debt is somewhat better than Australia's although at some stage it'd probably be a really good idea to diversify their exports a bit more.
What I find most appealing however is the political system. A unicameral parliament made up of single-member constitutuencies and proportional representation seats with special seats for Maori constitutencies. In the last election (2002) Labor received 41%, Nationals 21%, New Zealand First 10%, ACT 7%, Greens 7%, United Future 7%, Others 7%. From what I can tell, ACT are moderate capitalist libertarians, NZ First are old conservatives, anti-immigration, anti-indigenous rights (and to think my mother is a personal friend of their leader, Winston Peters *shakes head*), United Future is a "family values" party, moderate conservatives with a god-awful website as well.
So whilst NZ isn't some sort of Labor utopia the fact that the nominally "conservative" parties have fragmented into "modern", "traditional" and "reactionary" wings means that I find that I could at least deal with the ACT and the Greens (cf., "geolibertarianism") under a general social democratic orientation. I could live with that. In fact, I think some real mileage can be gained from it, especially given New Zealand's propensity to engage in brave acts of independent foreign and domestic policy. All of this is very encouraging compared to the Australian political landscape.
And besides... There's this little town called Dunedin...
All other events in the past week went well in comparison. Clinton's launch of "Reluctant Saviour" on Australia's foreign policy on East Timor was positive and, having now finished the book, I can recommend it even higher. As I expected, this is a book of disturbing (well, not disturbing to me) facts, and strong theory based on rather common-sense elucidations.
Richard Stallman's presentation on the danger of software patents at the Uni of Melbourne was extremely well attended - at least five hundred people. The straggly haired programmer from the seventies, picked his nose, kicked off his shoes and utterly destroyed the idea that patents are good for software development - remember you, and your users, can be sued for software that you wrote. Want to protect yourself? Well, read the tens of thousands of software patents in Americo-legalese.
Wednesday is Deb's opening for East Timor Women Australia at 6pm Ross House, 247 Flinders lane, Melbourne with East Timorese music, coffee, and nibbles
Finally, on Friday
severina_242 is having her exhibition "Domos Monstrous" with Kerri Michael at the Intrude Gallery, 114 Gertrude St, 6.30 - 8.30 pm. I had a little to do with this, writing the original proposal for the exhibition which, contrary to most art critics who claim the Australian suburban landscape is plain, safe and boring, presents the suburban dream as a disturbing nightmare that is unsettling and dangerous. Come along and support great art.Update
Where to for workers and the left? forum at 7pm Thursday 14 October, Upstairs, Mac's Hotel 34 Franklin St CITY (Between Swanston and Elizabeth sts). My (
paula_angela) fellow speakers are: Fraser Brindley, Greens Councilor, Moreland and Tessa Theocharous, Socialist Alliance candidate, Moreland Counciland I've just applied to join the New Zealand Labour Party.
New Zealand beckoning
i see that .nz has ADSL, but avarice greed seems to be ruling the day and it is therefore conciously pricey due to Telecom New Zealand's scarcity tactics.
as you know, i recently returned from spent 6 years in a country where The Telecom there is doing exactly the same thing to the detriment of The Greater Good.
in any case, i'm In Process of postulating an exploratory trip to .nz check, but not Czech, things out. from what little i've gleaned, Auckland seems to be the "warmest place" with "the most civilization" (i.e. fast internet and good food -- remembering that's all that's really needed to live a good life... :)
Re: New Zealand beckoning
Wellington has a lovely civilized and friendly atmosphere although I admit it's not as warm as Auckland.
you vote for Wellington over Auckland
2. pro's & con's, pretty please...?
with (or without) some Orange Mousse on top :)
Re: you vote for Wellington over Auckland
Not because I don't like Auckland (I do), but because ADSL is such a waste of time and money it's not funny. TelstraClear (!) actually compete with their cable internet products. Surprising that (unlike phone charges) Telecom has not even bothered to actually compete on this, and then harp on about "xtra broadband". Heh.
Re: you vote for Wellington over Auckland
The comparison between Auckland to Wellington is (on a smaller scale) like comparing Sydney to Melbourne or (on a way out of it scale) comparing London to Prague.
One is bold, brash with plenty of colour and movement, lots of tech toys and lots of money. The other is more cautious, reserved, more arts, literature and politics orientated...
Anyway, that's how I see it.
Re: you vote for Wellington over Auckland
_____ is bold, brash with plenty of colour and movement, lots of tech toys and lots of money
_____ is more cautious, reserved, more arts, literature and politics orientated.
(been to both Sydney and Melbourne "understand" That Difference, as well as to, Prague and London and Fully Understand That Difference (er, they're different countries, not to mention languages, after all :)))
Re: you vote for Wellington over Auckland
Oh sorry, I was positioning them relative to each other.
The more upbeat place in each is Auckland, Sydney, London.. The more reserved place is Wellington, Melbourne, Prague.
Re: you vote for Wellington over Auckland
Wellington
Re: Wellington
i see you're also into electronica -- is there a good scene for that in Wellington (or Auckland, for that matter)? any radio stations, commercial or university, that play it? i'm thinking of taking My Next Career in That Direction.
i wasn't aware of the TelstraClear/cable option to TPC (The Phone Company), so that is a major plus (along with the more sunshine, of course!) :))
thanks for your time, really appreciate it.
geoff
Re: Wellington
On the other hand, the air is always fresh :o)
I'm not really too sure what the current electronica scene here is like (with a 5yo at home I don't get out as often as I used to :o) ) but check out Obscure for what's on etc. (also there's
Re: Wellington
Even "notorious" is an understatement.
Wellington, if my memory serves me right, is downright familiar with winds around 70-80km per hour (dammit, where's those offshore wind farms?). And recollecting from perhaps one of the best short film I have ever seen, "The Tragedy of the Wahini", occassionally has to put up with up to 160kmph.
hear hear
But boy did the weather suck. It rains. Every. Day.
Humidity makes me wilt. I'll take the refreshening southerlies any day.
Re: New Zealand beckoning
ADSL is not worth thinking about here, as Telecom refuses to really compete. Cable, however, works quite nicely for those who can get it (me!).
Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was), and is rather better laid out for those who enjoy such things (the central CBD is rather more flat than Auckland's, which is rather humorous).
Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
wrt to fast(est) internet, here in The San Francisco Bay Area i'm paying $40 USD (~58 NZD) for 3 Mbps ADSL. in Prague, where i lived for the previous 6 years, i was paying twice that amount for creaky 256kbs connection using an 802.11b p2p connection. i would hate to have to go back to under 1 Mbps again.
thanks for your insights, really appreciate it.
geoff
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
I pay (well, myself and flatmates) pay $58/mnth for 2mbps down/256k up. Cable here is not as bad as I've heard it being in the US - I guess due to it having speed caps the cables are generally not over crowded. (Namely I have no problem reaching the max of 2mbps downloading.) 10mbps costs more. Quite a lot more. Bastards.
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
The excess of traffic coming in (vs going out) is what causes high cost of bandwidth here (at least bandwidth that includes traffic charges). Mainly it's the international traffic which costs (due to that pesky cable going between us/the Aussies and the US), but TelstraClear (and other Telcos) are doing there best to eliminiate local traffic being "free" (which it should be).
I'd rather have high speed than unlimited traffic. Four of us here rarely go over the 5GB cap we have (we did once). And 256k isn't high speed, at all. Shudder at the thought.
Plus Telecom is evil, supporting them is just silly. Have a look at Woosh, which in Auckland and the Wellington CBD offers "250k", but with unlimited downloads, is not Telecom, and is CDMA-based wireless (not, however, part of a cell "phone" system, it's purely data from what I understand) - www.woosh.co.nz.
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
The Result: artificial b/w scarcity and high(er) prices for extant internet offerings. if They were to open, er, light it all up, It could provide 11.5 continuous kilobits every second of every day to every one of New Zealand's 3.75 million people.
thanks for the pointer to the woosh guys -- will check it out (although i have doubts that any wireless only data network offering unlimited traffic will ever be able to pay back their initial capex, let alone, break even/make a profit).
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
11.5 continous kilobits doesn't sound that good to me :) - and it's no longer 3.75 it's 4.07 according to Statistics NZ
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
11.5 continous kilobits doesn't sound that good to me :)
Yeah, but it would be 11.5 for every single person, all the time.
It's like the 'phone lines over here. Estimated normal use compared to capacity - 2%.
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
*nods* The economics of telecommunications infrastructure is quite interesting. I tend to the opinion (heck, I've been saying this one for years) that the public sector should look after the infrastructure and the private sector should look after the service. This would result in maximum productivity in both areas.
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
You know, I still personally use dial-up ;-)
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
I'm sure you already know ;-)
I avoid graphic intensive sites. For example, I go to www.theage.com.au/text rather than www.theage.com.au - the difference is substantial.
And I'm used to it. Heck, I was still using a 2400 baud modem up to a few years ago - I think 2001 was the last time.. OK, that was pretty slow.. But good enough for PINE..
Hey, you should have seen the ping responses for when I was in Timor...
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)
Re: Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was)