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Diary of a B+ Grade Polymath ([personal profile] tcpip) wrote2004-10-10 11:56 pm

John Howard is Brilliant, and the Labor Party has no courage. The New Zealand option.

There have been only two elections in the past ten years that I have guessed wrong. The 1999 Victorian state election and this Federal election. And in this election I must admit, that Howard's cunning and sheer capacity to strip himself of any veneer of moral integrity in the mindless pursuit of power surprised me.

Interest rates. What a plan of evil genius that was.



See, this is how it worked: Over the past eight and a half years, with massive government cutbacks in services and such enormous increases in household taxation that we now have the highest taxing government ever, our previous public debt has been shifted to a much larger private debt. Not for the big-end of town of course, but rather the private debt of ordinary Australians, who now have the biggest household debt (mortgage, credit card etc) in history. It was an act of little economic dexterity and of course, allowed the opportunity for John Howard's masters to skim a little more cash.

Consider it a market relationship. Certain members of society have a pathological desire more money. Other members of society have a pathological desire for more power. A mutually succesful contractual obligation is derived and lo! we have the ruling class, or at least nearly all of them. Ahh, yes... Class. Not allowed to mentioned that word anymore are we? No, we're all one big happy family in this country all pulling together for one another. But I digress...

Howard put ordinary Australian households in a situation of the worse debt they've ever been in. And then what? He threatens them! "Oh, look out! It's the high interest rate bogeyman!". Indeed, that struck a chord. After all, if interest rates do go up for many households already at the edge of their debt limit it's curtains. And not just metaphorically. Situations like this do lead to those awful suicide-murders with alarming regularity.

And, like the "Never ever GST", the "children overboard" events, or the "weapons of mass destruction" and that enormous list of prior deceptions, it was A BIG LIE. I swear, Howard is so brilliant at this. With his lust for power (rather sad and pathetic at his age, I think), he not only hinges the election campaign on the issue of trust, with no sense of irony, he actually distracts everyone from the possibility that once again he's going to deceive the public again!

Interest rates. Determined by the Reserve Bank of Australia, independent of the edicts of the Government. Primarily influenced by interest rates in economies of size and influence far greater than ours. Howard knows this, after all, he was Treasurer of the country when interest rates were over 20% and he certainly doesn't blame himself for that! The best any government can do is to position our little economy so that any dramatic international changes don't affect us as badly. If you're in doubt of this, do some international comparisons of interest rates of OECD countries over time. When the big economies move, we move with them. And as an export-orientated country, there's not very much we can do about it.

I don't blame the electorate for not knowing this. The overwhelming majority haven't done high school economics, let alone university economics and are completely oblivious to the behaviour of international money markets and the institutional machinations of how interest rates actually work (in a sentence: when the economy is healthy there is usually a demand for more investment which puts pressure on the money supply causing an interest rates increase). Heck, they're battling to work out the family budget each fortnight. And, I must confess, I underestimated it as in election issue as well. After all, I live like a Scottish Calvinist and actually have net savings. Things like massive improvements to public schools, a substantial tax cut for nearly all those earning less than $50,000, protection of old-growth forests, ending dangerous military adventures etc seemed more substantial.

No, I blame the pathetic campaign of the Labor Party which, with all their positives, forgot something that Beazley never did - that there are people out there who are really funding it hard and the prospect of 17.5% interest rates was just a nightmare. So what did Labor do? Did Labor go on a furious angry attack and point out in bold stark terms that this is yet another weapon of mass deception? Of course not, they played right into Howard's hands. Mark Latham signs a big piece of cardboard that endorses the point of view that somehow the Australian government could exert real influence over the flow of capital in the international economy. And as one Liberal commentator pointed out, stunts like that don't change people's minds. But it did put into people's minds that somehow the Australian government could substantially influence international trends. And on the election day, that high number of undecideds came out and played it safe. After all, under Howard, interest rates couldn't possibly rise, could they?

Fear. Uncertainity. Doubt. The essence of John Howards marketing. Like I said, brilliant. And when the next election comes around, when this lie has been exposed, rest assured there will a new one and, perhaps once again, Labor will dither.

Anyway. Richard O'Brien and I got to the Blackburn Primary polling booth at 5.45am. We set up, worked all day and achieved a 3.5% swing to Labor when the rest of the seat went 3.8% to the Liberals. A fairly typical performance from us, but not as good at the 11% gain on primaries we achieved at the Parkville polling booth in the 1999 state election. I reckon a couple of Labor strategists - including Bob McMullin ("Labor's master strategist") -who's losing more elections that Arthur Calwell - needs to be replaced and Rich and I can move in their stead.



However, New Zealand does beckon more (again) as a viable option. And I am a citizen after all..


The election result has underscored my feelings from the last one - which convinced me to move to East Timor - that I can have no pride in being an Australian. We have become a country where "the fair go" is no longer part of the national ethos, we where we lock refugee children up behind razor wire, a country of wowser puritans which is economically myopic, racist to both our indigenous people and migrants and utterly subservient to American foreign policy. And under such circumstances, one has to be a realist and work out whether it is a more efficient use of my energies to try to turn the situation around here, or further the progressive reforms already started in a place like New Zealand.

There are negatives of course. New Zealand, being more isolated from its major trading partners, has a lower purchasing power per capita $21,600 USD (NZ) versus $29,000 USD (NZ), making NZ wages roughly 75% of their Australian equivalent - and no, that's purchasing power, so don't think "but rents are cheaper". Unemployment is lower (4.7% versus 6%) but there's a poor distribution of income, especially at the more extreme points (bottom 10%, top 10%). Infrastructure isn't quite as good on most issues (rail, roads, pipelines) on a per capita basis but in telecommunications they're almost equal ('phones per capita, Internet users per capita) and in some cases they even far surpass Australia (e.g., radio). The electricity production is comparable and less than 1/3 of it comes from fossil fuels (compared to Australia's 91%). The current account deficit and foreign debt is somewhat better than Australia's although at some stage it'd probably be a really good idea to diversify their exports a bit more.

What I find most appealing however is the political system. A unicameral parliament made up of single-member constitutuencies and proportional representation seats with special seats for Maori constitutencies. In the last election (2002) Labor received 41%, Nationals 21%, New Zealand First 10%, ACT 7%, Greens 7%, United Future 7%, Others 7%. From what I can tell, ACT are moderate capitalist libertarians, NZ First are old conservatives, anti-immigration, anti-indigenous rights (and to think my mother is a personal friend of their leader, Winston Peters *shakes head*), United Future is a "family values" party, moderate conservatives with a god-awful website as well.

So whilst NZ isn't some sort of Labor utopia the fact that the nominally "conservative" parties have fragmented into "modern", "traditional" and "reactionary" wings means that I find that I could at least deal with the ACT and the Greens (cf., "geolibertarianism") under a general social democratic orientation. I could live with that. In fact, I think some real mileage can be gained from it, especially given New Zealand's propensity to engage in brave acts of independent foreign and domestic policy. All of this is very encouraging compared to the Australian political landscape.

And besides... There's this little town called Dunedin...


All other events in the past week went well in comparison. Clinton's launch of "Reluctant Saviour" on Australia's foreign policy on East Timor was positive and, having now finished the book, I can recommend it even higher. As I expected, this is a book of disturbing (well, not disturbing to me) facts, and strong theory based on rather common-sense elucidations.

Richard Stallman's presentation on the danger of software patents at the Uni of Melbourne was extremely well attended - at least five hundred people. The straggly haired programmer from the seventies, picked his nose, kicked off his shoes and utterly destroyed the idea that patents are good for software development - remember you, and your users, can be sued for software that you wrote. Want to protect yourself? Well, read the tens of thousands of software patents in Americo-legalese.

Wednesday is Deb's opening for East Timor Women Australia at 6pm Ross House, 247 Flinders lane, Melbourne with East Timorese music, coffee, and nibbles

Finally, on Friday [livejournal.com profile] severina_242 is having her exhibition "Domos Monstrous" with Kerri Michael at the Intrude Gallery, 114 Gertrude St, 6.30 - 8.30 pm. I had a little to do with this, writing the original proposal for the exhibition which, contrary to most art critics who claim the Australian suburban landscape is plain, safe and boring, presents the suburban dream as a disturbing nightmare that is unsettling and dangerous. Come along and support great art.

Update

Where to for workers and the left? forum at 7pm Thursday 14 October, Upstairs, Mac's Hotel 34 Franklin St CITY (Between Swanston and Elizabeth sts). My ([livejournal.com profile] paula_angela) fellow speakers are: Fraser Brindley, Greens Councilor, Moreland and Tessa Theocharous, Socialist Alliance candidate, Moreland Council

and I've just applied to join the New Zealand Labour Party.

[identity profile] frou-frou.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 02:07 pm (UTC)(link)
A fairly typical performance from us, but not as good at the 11% gain on primaries we achieved at the Parkville polling booth in the 1999 state election

Might I be so bold to claim some of that credit for myself, Lev? I worked hard with you on that day too :)

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 02:15 pm (UTC)(link)

Indeed you can, and yes, you did work hard on that day - and surprised the daylights out of Rich and myself when you mentioned we'd won eight seats... turned out to be an underestimation!

Ahh, those were heady days...

What are you doing up so late on el-jay anyway? ;-)

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[identity profile] frou-frou.livejournal.com - 2004-10-11 12:43 (UTC) - Expand

[identity profile] tabouli.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 02:21 pm (UTC)(link)
Interest rates. What a plan of evil genius that was.

Indeed it was. I'm the first to admit I'm shaky on politics and economics, but I have a pretty good handle on human nature, and the minute I saw those Coalition ads on interest rates rising under the ALP I heard the alarm bells ringing. After all, in the last few years, the amount of none-too-economically-savvy people who've been lured into mortgages they can't afford by the housing grant and all the dodgy mortgage brokers I hear advertising their services ("No deposit, no worries!") must be huge. Surely, I thought, Latham is savvy enough to see this and counter those ads ASAP? But no.

Sigh.

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 09:53 pm (UTC)(link)

*nods* You're exactly right. With the fall in interest rates - which is usually a sign of poor investment demand - "ordinary" Australians started trying to play landlord and capitalist. So we have a lot of people with a second and third mortgage and a swag of Telstra2 shares and debt.

[identity profile] zey.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 04:21 pm (UTC)(link)
As someone who's thinking seriously about the NZ Option, what's the particular attraction to Dunedin?

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 09:58 pm (UTC)(link)

A small city (200K, IIRC). A university city, with quite a decent university (Otago). Amazingly attractive place, albeit very hilly. Close enough to the central lakes and so'west mountain region. Very Scottish, of the liberal Presbytarian variety.

Oh, and the Labor Party out-polls the conservatives 4:1. ;-)

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[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com - 2004-10-10 23:23 (UTC) - Expand

New Zealand beckoning

[identity profile] geoff.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 05:17 pm (UTC)(link)
funny you should mention it.. i may be joining you there (or going to Vancouver, BC) if Our Upcoming Elections here take to a More of The Same fate.

i see that .nz has ADSL, but avarice greed seems to be ruling the day and it is therefore conciously pricey due to Telecom New Zealand's scarcity tactics.

as you know, i recently returned from spent 6 years in a country where The Telecom there is doing exactly the same thing to the detriment of The Greater Good.

in any case, i'm In Process of postulating an exploratory trip to .nz check, but not Czech, things out. from what little i've gleaned, Auckland seems to be the "warmest place" with "the most civilization" (i.e. fast internet and good food -- remembering that's all that's really needed to live a good life... :)

Re: New Zealand beckoning

[identity profile] kimeros.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 07:47 pm (UTC)(link)
I vote for Wellington over Auckland, I guess that's why I live here :-)

Wellington has a lovely civilized and friendly atmosphere although I admit it's not as warm as Auckland.

Wellington

[identity profile] aayande.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 08:20 pm (UTC)(link)
Admittedly Auckland might be warmer but it's also wetter and Wellington gets more sunshine. I reckon the coffee is better here too. And we've got fast internet too - the only major competitor to Telecom (TelstraClear) currently offers its fast cable internet only in Wellington and Christchurch...

Re: Wellington

[identity profile] geoff.livejournal.com - 2004-10-10 20:41 (UTC) - Expand

Re: Wellington

[identity profile] aayande.livejournal.com - 2004-10-10 22:20 (UTC) - Expand

Re: Wellington

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com - 2004-10-10 23:55 (UTC) - Expand

hear hear

[identity profile] arohanui.livejournal.com - 2004-10-15 03:51 (UTC) - Expand

Re: New Zealand beckoning

[identity profile] pftqg.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 08:31 pm (UTC)(link)
Actually Auckland does not have the fastest internet (though there is limited access to a new radio based service...) as realistically unless you get fibre and live in the central city (two pricey options), then the most you'll get is ADSL (at somewhere between 2 and 6 Mbps). In Wellington or Christchurch you have cable (which has 2 or 10 Mbps plans).

ADSL is not worth thinking about here, as Telecom refuses to really compete. Cable, however, works quite nicely for those who can get it (me!).

Wellington is also the Cafe capital (or at least it was), and is rather better laid out for those who enjoy such things (the central CBD is rather more flat than Auckland's, which is rather humorous).

[identity profile] monkeygirldiva.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 06:52 pm (UTC)(link)
i can definitely understand the urge to move to new zealand... in cairo during the last iraq war, i was telling people i was a new zealander for personal security reasons. as a result, i feel like i have a certain affinity with the place (and the people), even though i've never even been there :)

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 10:06 pm (UTC)(link)

New Zealand has a certain gusty approach to foreign affairs that means that they're prepared to tell a larger power to "get nicked, we're doing it our way". Usually small powers can be easily manipulated to their detriment. Look at East Timor's minister for foreign affairs for a prime example :/

Mind you, Canada does it to. The US is probably still smarting from the time they tried to invade and were soundly defeated...

[identity profile] arohanui.livejournal.com 2004-10-15 04:02 am (UTC)(link)
*cackles* Gosh, you're as bad as Mossad!

Yeah, everyone I know who has two or more passports travels on their Kiwi one. We're generally seen as: "mostly harmless".

(no subject)

[identity profile] arohanui.livejournal.com - 2004-10-17 08:43 (UTC) - Expand

[identity profile] jadine.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 09:36 pm (UTC)(link)
The electricity production is comparable and less than 1/3 of it comes from fossil fuels

Wow, that's really impressive.

Vancouver! You want to move to Vancouver!

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 09:50 pm (UTC)(link)
Wow, that's really impressive.

New Zealand has lots of mountains, lots of rain ergo lots of hydroelectricity.

Australia could be just as efficient. We have a lot of sun here, know what I mean?

Vancouver! You want to move to Vancouver!

*nods* Option two is Canada, and Vancouver in particular (hey, does William Gibson still live there?). Would like to visit it first of course.

What surprises me about Canada is that they seem to have done correctly everything that Australia stuffs up on... A federal government, multiculturalism, indigenous affairs..

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[identity profile] greylock.livejournal.com - 2004-10-11 00:51 (UTC) - Expand

Two alternatives.

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com - 2004-10-11 01:24 (UTC) - Expand

oot and aboot

[identity profile] arohanui.livejournal.com - 2004-10-15 03:57 (UTC) - Expand

[identity profile] aayande.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 10:32 pm (UTC)(link)
>>The electricity production is comparable and less than 1/3 of it comes from fossil fuels

>Wow, that's really impressive.


Trouble is, the hydro lakes don't have that much capacity (only about 6 months max) so in dry years reserves can run pretty low, and the nimbys object whenever and where ever anyone wants to put up a windfarm.

Vancouver does sound nice. Still... I'm glad I'm here rather than anywhere else :o)

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[identity profile] arohanui.livejournal.com - 2004-10-15 05:10 (UTC) - Expand

[identity profile] pftqg.livejournal.com 2004-10-11 12:24 am (UTC)(link)
I'm thinking of voyaging to Vancouver next year, as a change of pace from ol' Wellington. So I can't argue against it.

Except it's not Wellington.

Yep.

(What's internet like in Vancouver? And housing?)

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[identity profile] amarafox.livejournal.com - 2004-10-11 19:02 (UTC) - Expand

[identity profile] caseopaya.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 11:03 pm (UTC)(link)
However, New Zealand does beckon more (again) as a viable option

Mind if I run too???? *sigh*

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-11 12:06 am (UTC)(link)

Of course! I wonder if that 145 bedroom place is still available in Gore....

(no subject)

[identity profile] caseopaya.livejournal.com - 2004-10-11 00:08 (UTC) - Expand

[identity profile] casca-2u.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 11:13 pm (UTC)(link)
But if socially aware and politically astute people like yourself leave Australia, then we are really in the quagmire...

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-11 12:11 am (UTC)(link)

Yes, I have thought about that. The bottom line is efficient expenditure of political energy for the best result.

Moving Australia in any sort of positive direction is going to be almost impossible over the next several years - although occassionally, as the mass protest against East Timor did show - we can influence government.

And of course, I'd hardly be leaving Australia never to return etc. I'd simply be taking advantage of my dual citizenship and I'd be building networks in both countries.

It's about time the forces of labour became as internationalist as the forces of capital. Which, for many Australians, should mean looking closely at their relationship with SE Asia.

Of course, one needs to convince the unions that rather than opposing free trade with such places, they need to unionize Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc.

[identity profile] cvisors.livejournal.com 2004-10-10 11:53 pm (UTC)(link)
To be honest I thing the big issue was that whole interest rates thing, I know of many people who once rates do start to rise, that once the rates rise another 1% are going to be strugling..

But to be honest, I thought the Liberals would get back in, but what I didn't think would happen, is that they would be able to control the senate (it looks like the libs will get another senate seat in qld) and even if they don't, they have now half of the senate and it does look like there will be on victorian family first senator.

*sigh*

I didn't think it would be as bad as this..

B

All the power.

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-11 12:15 am (UTC)(link)

With the election of a Liberal controlled Senate and with the personality of Howard at the hilt - who cares not for bipartisan agreement - we can imagine what is in store for people. Especially workers.

Just remember, it is the job of a boss( individually and collectively), to receive the maximum productivity out of you for the lowest wage possible. And Howard will implement their wishes under the guise of a "free" labour market.

[identity profile] angel80.livejournal.com 2004-10-11 11:47 am (UTC)(link)
The 'fair go' never had much impact on women, indigenous Australians, Asian immigrants, gays or anything but white men.

We've always fought with each other over who should have the fair go anyway. Apparently we've had a brief period of about 30 years in which some of the downtrodden began to feel better, but now we're going back to our more comfortable fears and prejudices.

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-11 01:52 pm (UTC)(link)

True enough.. But I guess like many of my age and younger, we'd grown used to the idea of equal rights and fairness regardless of sex, sexuality, or ethnicity. As children of those remarkable social changes of the 60s/70s I guess we assumed that once achieved there was no going back.

(no subject)

[identity profile] angel80.livejournal.com - 2004-10-12 01:47 (UTC) - Expand

[identity profile] amarafox.livejournal.com 2004-10-11 02:01 pm (UTC)(link)
Man. I feel like an ass. about 12 years ago, I was young and ipressionable and slightly more conservative than I am now. I was actually more centrist. I voted liberal. Now that I'm older, wiser, bitter and a little more, well, gay (Not totally, mind you!), I shake an angry fist at the Howard government. Either I didn't see this when I was young, or they've gotten worse and woese over the years.

Maybe I just woke up all of a sudden. That could be it.

I also see parallels between Australia and NZ & US and Canada. People want to leave the US to come to Canada, people want to leave Australia to go to New Zealand.

The fact that people from the outside see Australia as a tolerant, laid back country makes me wonder if they ead news about Australia. I hear that my Dual Canadian/Australian citizenship is like gold now, and almost impossible to get.

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-13 12:04 am (UTC)(link)

There's nothing wrong per se with being a conservative. I can certainly understand it as a disposition (slowly and surely, don't rock the boat etc). However, when people make choices which are based on deception, that's not conservatism, that's lying. And I don't like that no matter what the ideology is.

The fact that people from the outside see Australia as a tolerant, laid back country makes me wonder if they ead news about Australia.

I think the key thing would be the use of the past-tense "was" rather than "as". The place has changed a lot over the past five years or so.

I hear that my Dual Canadian/Australian citizenship is like gold now, and almost impossible to get.

Why's that? What's changed?

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[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com - 2004-10-13 11:16 (UTC) - Expand

God Bless the U.S. and To Hell with Him if He Won't

[identity profile] ex-nulloneha471.livejournal.com 2004-10-12 04:52 am (UTC)(link)
The election result has underscored my feelings from the last one - which convinced me to move to East Timor - that I can have no pride in being an Australian.

You know friend, it is likely I have misinterpreted or improperly presumed, but I admit that I was quite surprised to hear of such a civic-minded fellow as yourself planning to emigrate because of politics. One might say that it is the folks that care who are needed to most to fix the political system. On the other hand, I was never very fond of the "what if everyone did it?" sorts of arguments.

What are we to do about politics?

I have felt a similar dissatisfaction in recent months with the activities, intents and control of my own government in this, the United States. It's not about international law or short-sighted foreign policy, though these are certainly serious practical concerns. I am troubled because the U.S. government seems to show a persistent and flagrant disregard for all basic moral principles. It has reached a point where I can no longer help but feel complicit in a terrible sin.

The thing is, the U.S. may be exceptionally powerful and quite badly behaved, but it is far from the only government in the world to take up the mundane (i.e. world conquest) in favor of the essential (i.e. human health and welfare). I admit that I have begun quietly making plans to emigrate within the next several years and that I have built a case for my status as conscientious objector to war, but to leave the country is not a thing I would do gladly, and to find a political system that does not spawn vice and corruption seems impossible. Despite all the sicknesses it suffers, and all of the terrible things its government does, I love the United States all the same.

What I am getting at is this: wouldn't you be plagued by a similar remorse, regardless of how corrupt the political system and how sick the culture? Wouldn't you leave Australia with a heavy heart?

Re: God Bless the U.S. and To Hell with Him if He Won't

[identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com 2004-10-12 09:13 am (UTC)(link)
I admit that I was quite surprised to hear of such a civic-minded fellow as yourself planning to emigrate because of politics. One might say that it is the folks that care who are needed to most to fix the political system

It does require careful consideration. It is not a case of "this government sucks, I'm leaving", but rather "how can I most effectively implement progressive change?" - and the term 'effective' implies consideration of realistic possibilities and resources.

I have this nagging feeling that given NZs status in the world and its current political system that leadership by example has a far greater possibility than trying delay an inevitable slide.

Of course, NZ has always held its intellectuals, scientists and artists in higher esteem that Australia has as well.

Despite all the sicknesses it suffers, and all of the terrible things its government does, I love the United States all the same.

I hear and understand this sentiment. The United States has in many times in the past provided moments of the greatest leadership to the world, not the least being the remarkable declaration of independence to the intervention of Franklin Delano Rooselvelt.

However, I must confess I have never felt this way about Australia. It has always been a country of flawed compromises and with some rather grubby prejudices. It's had a handful of great leaders (Curtin, Chiefly, Evatt, Cairns) and numerous terrible ones.

Wouldn't you leave Australia with a heavy heart?

To be perfectly honest, not particularly. I have been considering such a move for some time now and the opportunity has presented itself with a firmer reason.

yeah yeah yeah

[identity profile] arohanui.livejournal.com 2004-10-14 09:19 am (UTC)(link)
Move over here, if for no other reason than I'd quite like to meet you.

Good enough reason, no?

No? *laughs*

(no subject)

[identity profile] arohanui.livejournal.com - 2004-10-14 11:47 (UTC) - Expand