An Election Prediction, Telstra, Various studies and work, Animal tales....

[tcpip]

I predict a close victory for Labor.


Unlike most elections where a government can sometimes claw back a couple of percentage points over the weeks, I suspect Howard is going to lose ground in this election. True, he took a bold gamble on running the campaign on trust particularly considering his dubious record on East Timor, asylum seekers, weapons of mass destruction and the invasion of Iraq. This actions of course haven't damaged Howard's reputation among self-interested Australians, who couldn't give two figs if all the refo kids are bombed out the water, the Timorese are invaded or Iraq becomes a living hell, as long as their pay packets are OK. As is increasingly evident, these issues are actually damaging to the electoral core of the Liberal Party, the comfortable middle-class who see the politics of a nation as expression of the national values of liberal democracy, open government, the rule of law etc. Howard has substantially undermined all of these. On October 9, keep an eye on John Howard's seat of Bennelong, the extremely blue-blood seat of Wentworth which in all probability will fall to Liberal independent Peter King, and Alexander Downer's seat of Mayo which will probably go to preferences despite being held by a 14 percent margin.

The election will be largely fought in the marginal seats of Queensland and New South Wales where none of Labor's seats are in any serious trouble, except for the marginal seat of Bowman which due to boundary changes now has a notional Liberal majority (but Labor will undoubtably pick up the new seat of Bonner). Conversely, the coalition risks a great deal, holding paper-thin majorities in far too many. In Queensland, Herbert (1.5% margin) and Morton (2.5% margin) will be Labor gains, with the possibility of Longman (2.5%) and Hinkler (2.3%). Why people still vote for the coalition in Petrie (margin 3.5%) is beyond me, given the nature of the neighbourhood. Farmers (especially sugar farmers) in rural Queensland are likely to keep the National Party extremely busy, especially after their failures and public commitments to include sugar in the FTA and with the existence of a sitting independent.

New South Wales however is where the Coalition is in serious trouble. At least six seats (Dobell, 0.4%, Parramatte 1.2%, Paterson 1.5%, Calare 1.7%, Eden-Monaro 1.7%, Richmond 1.7%) and the possibility of Page (2.8%) will go Labor's way, whereas it is difficult to see any potential Coalition gains whatsoever. Mark Latham, both as a person and with his message, has far greater affinity in these areas than John Howard and this will prove to be extremely telling in coming weeks.

In other states, Labor will retain both seats in the ACT and all five seats in Tasmania and pick up up the second seat in the Northern Territory. In South Australia, the Coalition will certainly lose Adeliade, Hindmarsh and Makin. The Liberals are fishing for Stirling and Hasluck in Western Australia, but are in dire need to protect Canning as well. In Victoria, Labor premier Steve Bracks seems to have weakened Labor's chance of picking up Deakin over the tollway issue, although it has been pointed out that the state Liberals would do exactly the same thing. One other matter about Deaking - it's the "moral middle-class" discussed in the first paragraph - confusing state and federal issues won't wash with them and they have a strong liberal Christian ethic in many parts of the seat. Keep on eye out on this one. Despite McMillan becoming a notional Liberal seat, the young Labor member Christian Zahra is both popular and a competent campaigner. With some hesitation I would suggest he will retain this seat. The only other places of interest is McEwen which is too close to call and the National's seat Gippsland which is under serious risk from Labor following the incorporation of substantial parts of the La Trobe valley - not to mention a significant move of Victorian diary farmers to the Labor fold over recent years.

So there you have it. At least 12 seats to go to Labor, enough to form a majority government, with the possibility of several more.


I have had a recent run-in with Telstra, over a disputed phone bill from two years ago where the account and the quite modest outstanding balance was transferred into another persons' name just prior to my move to East Timor. It came to a head when I attempted to transfer my old Parliament of Victoria mobile number to my name - and bumped into ultraviolencia who works at a Telstra shop at the same time. I've submitted a complaint to the Telecommunications ombudsman over Telstra's intransigence on the matter and will be going to different providers for all my services. In general, it is clear to see why Lindsay Tanner's suggestion (I may add with significant prompting by myself) that Telstra be split into a private service provider and a public infrastructure maintenance body makes a great deal of sense. Their behaviour is that of an organization that thinks that they are still a monopoly, whereas the only reason that they retain any customers is because of their hold on infrastructure.

In that other news which takes up 99% percent of my life - the two courses of full-time study, the one course of part-time study and my part-time work - all goes well. I am positively flying through the Cert in Business Management being the only person in a class of 37 to have handed in the three assesment tasks (15 haven't handed in any, 14 have handed in one, 7 have handed in two). I am now feeling quite confident with the CCNA, having tested myself on the first part of the exam and getting over 85% whilst literally falling asleep last Monday night. Business goes well with more new clients from the course seeking my attention and a hairdresser where old Perth friend microJames promises to splash a great deal of money in my direction. Editing on the PhD continues as usual.

Last weekend was mostly spent helping severina_242 move into her spacious new flat in Elwood - the place that artists inevitably end up when successful in Melbourne. Seeming that she is now employed as a graphic artist it seems quite appropriate. Although time out was taken to attend the Unitarian's whose service fell under the old anarchist slogan "No Gods, No Masters" (very appropriate for the Unitarians, some would say), and the presentation on the introduction of Islamic law in Iraq, its re-establishment in Afghanistan, the force of non-secularists in the United States and the effect on these on women. When one hears about such things it is very easy to understand why people are (a) very cynical about claims of "freedom" and "liberation" when all that seems to occur is a gender-specific "liberation" for economic purposes and (b) why many women are not prone to be particularly supportive of patriachial religions in secular states.

As if it wasn't obvious from many preceeding posts over the past twelve months, I have had a change in diet in the past month which is friendly to mammals. I am still chowing down on chicken and fish and marsupials are a bit of a grey area. I still reckon I would try grilled rat if I get to visit the countryside of southern Viet Nam. Nonetheless, by an large, mammals are off my main culinary activity.

And on a related note, I do have a brain-breaker of the week, which is a bit of an oldie, but a goodie. pr0zac, being a zoologist, was about to attend a lecture on mice and mutant penises and was having a bit of giggle about the fun that zoologists have. In response I pointed her to the unusual penis of the Argentine Duck. Subsequently caseopaya and I discussed what happens to this poor duck. I mean, imagine if it doesn't retract. Whilst flying it would be mistaken for a kite's tail. When swimming a large fish might take a bite out of it. And landing and waddling would cause it to trip over its paddles. The mind boggles!

Update (aka "How did I forget that?")

Gathering of the week was the thirtieth birthday bash at Polly's for usekh. So many el-jay people there, great to see y'all, seeming how little I get out these days. Apologies for not being so bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, but I had been moving furniture all day. And that can be somewhat tiring...

Comments

election stuff.

[cvisors.livejournal.com]

Heya.

I wish I was still living at my parents this elections, as I then could vote for Christian Zahra, unfortunately, or fortunately depending how one sees it I am now in the seat of Wills, which will unless the impossible occurs will stay labor.

What I need to know, can one get a full listing of who is running for the senate so one can do research before one votes, as I always prefer to vote below the line.

Regards

Benjamin

the duck

[morrigan77.livejournal.com]

The mind not only boggles ...
How? All those suggestions of 'why' are complete BS - they have no idea how it got there and I'm petty sure that that little black duck will no father ducklings since he's not sure how to use it! surely muscualr control would be an issue - after all, what other male has to lift an organ the size of his body in order to be able to find gratification? For any male that's too much like hard work :)) All he's left with is bragging rights at the pub!! *LOL*

I made a mistake!

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Not pr0zac, but prozac!

[amarynth.livejournal.com]

Add to the (short) list of virtues of a non-proportional (well, semi-proportional) system that it provides easily predictable elections. I remember (well, I don't remember for myself, but I've read books about) the days elections could be predicted by looking at a bunch of marginal seats. It was kind of scary, really, to think that a bunch of farmers in Ashburton determined which government we got.

straight for the non political segment :)

[caseopaya.livejournal.com]

I still reckon I would try grilled rat if I get to visit the countryside of southern Viet Nam

Can I be standing next to you, holding up a photo of Harlequin and Monte??? *cheeky grin*

[greg.livejournal.com]

In the past few years, everybody that's ran on the platform of "I was with George W. Bush" at the watershed moment has lost. I will be hoping for a Labour victory which will lead to a Democrat victory here in the states 8 short weeks from now.

Whilst is a word I need to feature more prominently in my vocabulary.

[lefae.livejournal.com]

And how is young James nowadays?

[lederhosen.livejournal.com]

Bennelong will be interesting. I doubt Wilkie has any chance of winning, but from what I've heard he's scared Howard into spending a fair bit of energy campaigning in his own electorate, which detracts from his ability to fight for the Coalition as a whole.

Poor tactical move, because as long as Howard wins Bennelong this time the longer-term isn't likely to be much of an issue; in another three years, I suspect his time will be well and truly up.

now what...

[cvisors.livejournal.com]

Joy, there has been a terrorist attack against the au embassy in Jakata, whats the guess that this is going to be used by the Coalition, on their "argh terrorists" line...

*sigh*

B

[icepick666.livejournal.com]

heya, think i mite have met u out and about but you seem pretty cool anyway so have added you as a friend.