Dead Rats, Conference and Ministry, Election 2010

[tcpip]

As I was leaving for Queensland on Friday morning I noticed that Calamity rat had suffered another stroke, and he died later that day. One of our trio he'd just made it past two years of age and had been in care for a few months after his first stroke which caused paralysis on the back legs. This was, of course, after a removal of a tumour and subsequent emergency. Despite all these medical issues Calamity and being very shy as a ratling he was always an affectionate and apparently happy little rodent. He now joins Astaroth rabbit in our small backyard. With a degree of irony, 'stroth is providing blood and bone for some newly planted carrots and 'lamity is doing the same for parsley.

As mentioned I have returned from three days in Queenland, a ICUU/ANZUUA conference on growth, vitality and leadership lead by Rev. Jill McAlister of the People's Church of Kalamazoo. The Conference was held in a late-deco former nunnery for the Sisters of Mercy surrounded by forest, which was just a beautiful location. It was a great opportunity to, once again, meet up with the leadership of various congregations in the region one of the most significant decisions was to establish a ministry school along the lines of Meadville-Lombard or Starr King. Further, I have decided to take up such studies myself, probably starting at the end of this year. It is something I have had in the back of my mind for some time, and this conference has spurred the decision.

Finally, whilst all this was happening there was an election occurring. The results have led to a hung parliament at this stage, with Labor on 72 seats, the conservative Coalition on 71, the Greens 1, 4 independents and 2 still in doubt (Hasluck, Brisbane), both of which should go Labor's way on postals and pre-polls. Whilst Labor suffered heavily on the primary vote (and especially in Queensland), nearly all of this has gone to the Greens, with a very minor swing to the Coalition overall and Labor still leading 50.7% to 49.3% on two-party preferred. I have much to say about Labor's strategy and tactics in this election and in the wider analysis which will be written up in a forthcoming article. In the meantime, it seems almost certain that Labor will return to power albeit with the support of minor parties and independents which is possibly the best thing that could happen; good governance with good watchmen. Edit I've conducted an analysis of the postal votes which contains a few surprises.

Comments

[laura-seabrook.livejournal.com]

In the meantime, it seems almost certain that Labor will return to power albeit with the support of minor parties and independents which is possibly the best thing that could happen; good governance with good watchmen.

I tend to agree.

[mr-figgy.livejournal.com]

It's great to see a country where Greens could have any power at all. In Canada they're visible enough to be invited to Federal Leadership Debates yet even the leader has no seat, despite being one of the more impressive debate participants.

Also, pet sympathies. I unfortunately am in rented space and don't have suitable places to bury a pet, so I think they cremated Oona the Hedgehog with other pets. But I was happy to get a letter stating they had donated something to an animal-related charity on her behalf.

My brief comment on pollbludger.com

[tcpip.livejournal.com]

Current state of play is Labor 72, Coalition 71, Greens 1, independents 4 and 2 doubtful (Hasluck and Brisbane). Just to clarify, Boothby is not doubtful in my opinion, the Coalition will win it. Lindsay is not doubtful, Labor will win it with a huge advantage in postal votes. Hasluck will probably go to Labor due to the significant advantage they have with the postal votes. Brisbane is very close, but I'm leaning towards Labor on the same basis; Beavis had a majority of 1800 last election on postals and prepolls and the margin is less than 900.

So that makes it Labor 74, Coalition 71, Greens 1, independents 4. One of those independents is Wilkie and that result is by no means certain either with Labor still with a fair chance there. In any case I'd be very surprisied if he doesn't support a Labor minority government, along with Bandt for the Greens. As for the other independents, Windsor has previously supported Labor in a hung parliament (NSW) and is very keen on a carbon price. Oakeshott on the other hand really wants a NBN. Katter wants protectionism and infrastructure for rural Australia/Queensland.

Whomever is in power will have to deal with a Senate where Labor and the Greens are a majority. Dealing with this is requisite for stable and effective government. Also as the Liberal Senator George Brandis pointed out on election night, moral legitimacy in a hung parliament belongs to the party with the highest TPP vote. Of course, he said this when the Coalition was in front. I would hope he is sufficiently honourable not to change his mind at this point.

Add these factors to the requirement that the incumbent remains as Prime Minister until rejected by the House of Representatives. This is important; the Coalition needs 76 votes for this to occur; Labor only needs 75 to *retain* power.

Overall, it seems very likely to me that this will result in a Labor minority government. Which is actually a very good result for Australia.

[17catherines.livejournal.com]

I'm so sorry to hear about Calamity.

I'm interested to read your analysis of the election; I haven't seen anything this optimistic anywhere else. I hope you'll unpack this a bit later.

[lardarsegreg.livejournal.com]

Having only recently heard anything about the election that I've had the time to listen to, I have a lot of respect for the current prime minister. She called the election just after a leadership change, which is a very good way of giving the people a say in who runs the country. Gordon Brown should've done the same, I think...

[andricongirl.livejournal.com]

shame wilkie may not make it, oh well, I think labor have got the kick up the bum they deserve. hope they take a good look at the independants and greens and maybe get a few ideas of whats needed to help them next time

[zhenzhi.livejournal.com]

sweet dreams calamity rat. xoxo