For centuries the West has held outsized global power, even though Western societies were always a demographic minority. That dominance is now slipping, and although the world is still built on Western foundations (established institutions, science, law, finance) the West can no longer assume it sets the terms for everyone else. The real question is what kind of Western dominance is fading, and what might replace it.

After 1945 the USA forged a politically unified West, but then diluted that cohesion by framing itself as leader of the entire Free World, defined mostly by what it opposed. This logic survived the Cold War and eventually turned into a universalist liberal project that depended on having enemies to justify itself. When liberal democracy failed to spread globally (and when the US electorate doubled down on America First) the gap between Western ambitions and Western capabilities became impossible to ignore.

The West now faces three paths.

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