Resource prices. Follow resources prices. Are they continuing to trend down? Then we're not running out of those resources.
I have sympathy for ecological pressure arguments because the ecology ain't getting any bigger and the pressure on it is clearly increasing [on the other hand, extra CO2 emissions do encourage plant growth :)]. Though, short of movement of population or industry, not sure how other planets can help there.
I have no sympathy for the 'running out of resources' arguments, because clearly we're not, nor is there any evidence that stacks up that we are. Technologically stagnant non-trading economies can (and have) run out of resources (Easter Island is the usually cited example, possibly also the classical Maya civilisation). We're not and we don't.
A little thought experiement. Consider the energy use pattern of 1900. Consider the energy use pattern of 1950. Consider the energy use pattern of 2000. Would anyone in 1900 had any chance of predicting the 1950 pattern, let alone the 2000 pattern?
Consider the materials use pattern of 1900. Of 1950. Of 2000. Would anyone in 1900 have been able to predict that of 1950 or of 2000?
The running-out-of-resources argument requires predicting the future of technology (amongst other things).
A little tale. One of the reasons why BHP has had a bumpy time of it is that it decided to become the world's largest private sector copper producer. Because, after all, this is the electronic age and we need copper wiring for all that electronic stuff.
Does terrible things to your share price when you have all this copper and suddenly you're competing with sand. Optical fibres anyone?
A comforting thought
I have sympathy for ecological pressure arguments because the ecology ain't getting any bigger and the pressure on it is clearly increasing [on the other hand, extra CO2 emissions do encourage plant growth :)]. Though, short of movement of population or industry, not sure how other planets can help there.
I have no sympathy for the 'running out of resources' arguments, because clearly we're not, nor is there any evidence that stacks up that we are. Technologically stagnant non-trading economies can (and have) run out of resources (Easter Island is the usually cited example, possibly also the classical Maya civilisation). We're not and we don't.
A little thought experiement. Consider the energy use pattern of 1900. Consider the energy use pattern of 1950. Consider the energy use pattern of 2000. Would anyone in 1900 had any chance of predicting the 1950 pattern, let alone the 2000 pattern?
Consider the materials use pattern of 1900. Of 1950. Of 2000. Would anyone in 1900 have been able to predict that of 1950 or of 2000?
The running-out-of-resources argument requires predicting the future of technology (amongst other things).
A little tale. One of the reasons why BHP has had a bumpy time of it is that it decided to become the world's largest private sector copper producer. Because, after all, this is the electronic age and we need copper wiring for all that electronic stuff.
Does terrible things to your share price when you have all this copper and suddenly you're competing with sand. Optical fibres anyone?